Prices that U.S. consumers are paying at the gas pump have stubbornly stuck around $4 per gallon, a high price for this late in the summer, as the Iran war’s trajectory remains uncertain.
“We’re paying more than we’ve ever paid this time of year,” said Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at Gulf Oil. “For August, this is pretty high.”
Oil prices tend to rise in the summer as the country faces its peak driving season and slump in the autumn as seasonal demand goes down and heat-related restrictions on blending volumes lift.
The average U.S. gasoline price as of Wednesday was about $4.04, according to AAA, about 90 cents higher than the average price a year ago.
Prices of gasoline have spiked alongside oil prices during the Iran war, especially as the conflict has diminished traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping chokepoint.
The last time gasoline prices faced a significant spike was in 2022 amid Russia’s war with Ukraine. That year, the average gasoline price peaked at just above $5 per gallon.
However, by August, prices had started to come down. According to the Energy Information Association, the average price for the month of August 2022 was $4.09 per gallon.
Historic AAA data shows that by Aug. 12 of that year, the average U.S. price slid to $3.99 per gallon.
The next highest monthly average for August came in 2023, when prices were about $3.95 per gallon.
Meanwhile, Kloza projected that prices could remain stubborn for the next four to five weeks.
Similarly, Jim Mitchell, director of oil trading analytics at Wood Mackenzie, said he expects gasoline prices to remain high for the next four to six weeks, but they could come down after that.
“With winter gasoline, you’re blending in way cheaper components, so, once we get by probably the next four to six weeks, we’ll see much upward price pressure on gasoline,” Mitchell said.
Around the midterms, where fuel prices and affordability in general are expected to be a major voting issue, Kloza said, “I don’t think we’re going to have apocalyptic prices in the next 90 days or so, but I do think they’re going to be as high as they’ve ever been for this time of year.”
He said that barring an impactful hurricane, this could mean an average of about $3.50 to $3.75 per gallon.
David Doherty, head of natural resources at BloombergNEF, said that because of the challenges in getting crude oil out of the Strait of Hormuz and to refineries where it can be processed, other parts of the world are instead buying gasoline produced in the U.S., driving up demand.
“Certain markets buy crude from the Middle East and then they process that … and some of them can’t do that now,” Doherty said.
“The U.S. is basically sending a bunch of different oil products to Europe to fill some of the gap,” he added.
Kloza also said that drone strikes in Russia and the Middle East are reducing global oil refining capacity and raising prices in the process.
“It’s not a crude oil production crisis now. It’s more of a refined products production crisis,” he said.
And Kloza warned that as the price of diesel, which fuels trucks used to ship goods, is also high, Americans could see higher prices for everyday products.
“The biggest problem with the CPI [consumer price index] going forward, will arrive via the additional costs related to freight and movement that are tied to high diesel prices,” he said.
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