Brazil’s elections are the acid test for Trump’s Latin America policy

President Trump’s new Monroe Doctrine has tipped the scales in recent elections in Colombia, Peru, Honduras, Costa Rica, Chile and other countries. But October will mark its true acid test, as Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, decides whether to opt for the right or hand a fourth victory to leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. 

Making the new Monroe Doctrine work its magic again will be difficult but not impossible. The leftist dictatorships in Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela have made the task somewhat easier, serving as an immediate reflection of what Lula’s allies have done to their respective countries. 

Although the relationship between the U.S. and Brazil is currently at a low point, in September 2025, President Trump sought to try a new approach and extended an olive branch to Lula. Following a brief meeting, he stated that there was good chemistry between the two. But that chemistry was short-lived. 

In early May, Lula visited Trump at the White House. It was a three-hour, closed-door meeting with no press present — an effort to avoid another “Zelensky effect” incident. Nevertheless, the results of the meeting would become apparent weeks later.

In late May, Secretary of State Marco Rubio dealt a heavy blow to the Brazilian leader: The Primeiro Comando da Capital and Comando Vermelho criminal groups were designated as foreign terrorist organizations and specially designated global terrorists. 

For Lula, the announcement was tantamount to a declaration of war. According to his theory, this designation paves the way for a potential U.S. armed intervention under the guise of combating drug trafficking and international terrorism — much like the operation that led to the removal of Nicolas Maduro. 

In July, the situation worsened. Rubio announced that Trump would impose 25 percent tariffs on imports from Brazil. 

“Let there be no confusion about why,” he said. “President Lula and his government have not negotiated with the U.S. in good faith. His economic policies are bad for Americans and bad for Brazilians.” 

Lula has leveraged pressure from U.S. tariff policies to promote a confrontational patriotic narrative, which has helped him gain ground in the polls. The latest poll places him a mere three points behind his opponent, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro. 

However, in recent days, his resist-America tactic has begun to wear thin, and things have become difficult for Lula in recent weeks. President Javier Milei has joined those backing Bolsonaro and criticizing Brazil’s judiciary. Lula responded by expelling the Argentine ambassador and downgrading bilateral relations to talks with less influential diplomats.

Argentina is Brazil’s neighbor, and the two nations exchange $31 billion in trade. Against this backdrop, Lula continues to tie his economy to China — an extra-continental power and his primary trading partner.

Despite external challenges, Lula has enjoyed relative popularity at home, driven by the patronage associated with social programs in health, education and housing. Conversely, his security strategy represents one of his greatest weaknesses — an issue that has determined the outcome of many elections across Latin America in recent years.

The issue with Lula is not whether he is left-wing or right-wing. The problem is that, throughout his various terms in office, he has fostered close economic, political and even military ties with countries such as China, Russia and Iran. His administration has also defended and supported the dictatorships in Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela, despite their crimes against humanity and human rights violations.

With the Brazilian election less than two months away, the new Monroe Doctrine faces one of its greatest challenges: whether to strengthen its commitment to allies within the Americas or allow a friend of China, Russia and Iran to win the election for a fourth time, thereby opening the hemisphere’s doors to its greatest adversaries. 

Arturo McFields is an exiled journalist, former Nicaraguan ambassador to the Organization of American States, and a former member of the Norwegian Peace Corps. He is an alumnus of the National Defense University’s Security and Defense Seminar and the Harvard Leadership course.