Four scandal-plagued House Republicans whose seats should be gimmes for the GOP have instead turned their races into unexpected battlegrounds.
Why it matters: These aren’t districts you’d expect to be in play — Donald Trump carried all four comfortably in 2024. But the incumbents’ ethical troubles are making Republicans spend time and money defending the seats — in a cycle where neither party has any room for error.
Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.) dropped his reelection bid after the Ethics Committee found he violated House rules by sexually harassing female aides and creating a hostile work environment. That’s set off a scramble to find a replacement just three months before the election.
- The race was shifted to “toss-up” last week by Sabato’s Crystal Ball, even before the ethics report was released. Trump won Edwards’ district by 9.5 points last cycle.
- Whoever North Carolina Republicans choose on Monday night to replace Edwards will have a short runway to fundraise and introduce themselves to the district.
Max Miller (R-Ohio) is accused of assaulting his ex-wife and their child, allegations he denies.
- Even Trump expressed doubts to Miller that he can win, Axios reported this week. But he’s been defiant amid calls for him to drop out.
- Democrats are pinning their hopes on ironworker Brian Poindexter, a progressive populist backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).
- Trump carried the district by 11 points two years ago.
Cory Mills (R-Fla.) remains under an active Ethics Committee investigation over allegations that center on domestic abuse, stolen valor and financial misconduct, all of which he denies.
- Trump won Mills’ district by 13 points in 2024, but Mills is facing a tough primary fight.
- Reps. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) and Mike Haridopolos (R-Fla.) officially backed Mills’ primary challenger, Ryan Elijah. Haridopolos told Axios Wednesday that Elijah is a “true family man who can win in November in this safe Republican seat.”
- Multiple Democrats are vying to challenge Mills, but party leadership has lined up behind former NASA Chief of Staff Bale Dalton.
Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) had his phone seized by the FBI in 2024 as part of an investigation into his campaign finances.
- The Justice Department dropped the case after Trump returned to office last year, but the probe has left Ogles politically vulnerable.
- Democratic leadership’s top-flight recruit in the district, Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder, has a 3-to-1 fundraising advantage over Ogles.
What they’re saying: Viet Shelton, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), projected confidence that all four of these districts are very much in play.
- “Vulnerable House Republicans mistakenly think that no matter how awful their behavior is, they are untouchable,” he said in a statement.
- “Voters in these districts are pissed over higher costs, Republicans’ broken promises, and are ready to reject these scandal-plagued members, who’ve made voters’ lives worse.”
Between the lines: There’s a chance Ogles, Mills and Miller don’t make it to the general election.
- Ogles and Mills are both facing primary challenges from GOP rivals who have out-raised them.
- Miller has until next week to withdraw from the ballot and Republicans are eyeing contingency plans in case he bows to growing pressure.
The bottom line: “If all four of them are on the ballot, it’s a lot more of a pain in the ass,” one GOP operative told Axios shortly before Edwards dropped his bid.
