On a good day, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer can see a Democratic majority in 2027.
Why it matters: On a bad one, he can see the caucus that comes with it.
- Abdul El-Sayed’s 48.5% to 47.5% victory over Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) exposed an uncomfortable reality for Schumer: Some of the Democrats most likely to deliver him a majority may also be the hardest to lead.
- “If you’re Chuck Schumer, I’m dangerous,” El-Sayed said during the campaign. “If you’re AIPAC, I’m dangerous. If you’re a corporate PAC, I’m dangerous.”
Driving the news: Schumer was quick to endorse El-Sayed Wednesday, like he did after Graham Platner clobbered his preferred candidate in Maine.
- “We look forward to working with Abdul and Democrats across Michigan to win this seat in November,” Schumer and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, chair of the Democratic Senate campaign arm, said in a joint statement.
- El-Sayed didn’t directly comment on the endorsement Wednesday. “There’s a lot of healing to do after a hard-fought primary like this,” he said. “Always magnanimity in victory.”
What we’re watching: The next test for Schumer comes Aug. 11 in Minnesota, where voters will choose between progressive favorite Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.), the preferred choice of the Democratic establishment.
- It’s the Minnesota Nice version of the ugly proxy war between the party’s two wings — with a twist. Unlike in Michigan or Maine, the Democratic nominee is all but certain to win in November.
- Flanagan, who leads in the polls, has declined to say whether she’d support Schumer for Democratic leader.
- Ditto Democrats’ Texas nominee, state Rep. James Talarico, who has called for “new blood” in Washington.
- El-Sayed backs progressive Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) who “has shown what effective leadership in the Senate looks like.”
Zoom out: Schumer’s problem is one most minority leaders would envy: He has several paths to the majority, even if he ends up with a few more detractors.
- And he isn’t overly concerned with candidates declining to pledge support for him before Election Day. His mantra: Just win.
- Two of the Democrats’ best pick-up opportunities are Ohio and Alaska, where Schumer personally recruited former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) to run.
- And neither Rep. Chris Pappas in New Hampshire nor former Gov. Roy Cooper in North Carolina — who are both leading in polls — are anti-leadership firebrands.
The bottom line: Schumer finds himself in the same boat as the man he wants to dethrone: Majority Leader John Thune.
- Both will have freshman senators who owe their victories—and perhaps their loyalties—to political movements and constituencies beyond their orbit.
- But Schumer may have the better insurance policy. No one has expressed any public interest in the job.
