“Clearly, if 90% of the people are voting for somebody, there’s a leak,” Survivor host Jeff Probst told Variety. But he put the blame on the prediction markets gamifying the reality game in the first place. “You’re telling me there’s a way I can make money by sharing information I have, and I might not ever get caught? Of course, people are going to do that.”
Former Survivor contestant Teeny Chirichillo agrees that leaks are inevitable. “There’s so many people who know the outcome,” he says, noting that the show’s alumni often trade information within their ever-expanding circle, though he thinks their motives are innocent. “Everybody is sharing the information, not to make a buck and not to get clout, but to relate to each other’s experience.” You might have a current contestant who tells a former contestant, who tells a friend, and on it goes. In years past, these details sometimes made it to fan discussion boards, where people could choose to seek them out or not. The potential to parlay those spoilers into a windfall—and the near-impossibility of avoiding them—has changed everything.
“I understand the place of these betting markets in terms of events like sports, and even as a way of doing more predictive polling in elections than you might see in traditional polling methods,” says Cesternino. “But it’s insane that you’re able to bet on something like Survivor that already happened in the past, where hundreds of people know the outcome.”
Kalshi, which is federally regulated, says that it does a lot of work to combat and investigate insider trading, including checking traders’ social media for anyone who might be connected to the subject of the trade, per a source close to Kalshi. Earlier this year, the platform fined and suspended an associate of MrBeast for betting on upcoming videos. Kalshi head of enforcement Robert J. Denault also responded publicly to complaints about possible Survivor malfeasance, writing in March: “We’ve been checking backgrounds of traders in this market and have not identified anyone with any connection to Survivor. After reviewing the trading activity, it appears the likeliest explanation is that traders are following public rumors, following other traders who placed trades in the opening hours of the market, or just trading based on research and conviction.”
The entertainment industry is now faced with the dilemma of how to deal with prediction markets and the possible harm they may cause to shows’ brands. Reality TV shows are among the most popular entertainment markets, but people can also vote on Netflix’s top show of the week, casting announcements for future movies, and even the run time on a forthcoming film like The Odyssey—information likely known in advance to a decent number of people in Hollywood.
One possibility is for studios to join forces with the prediction markets in some way, in order to rein them in. Kalshi already has deals with CNN, CNBC, and Fox, and Polymarket signed an exclusive deal to integrate their prediction markets into the Golden Globes. Conversely, Cesternino wonders if a big studio like Paramount, home of Survivor, could “pull some strings with lawmakers to get the people who are running these sites to change it up when it comes to reality TV betting.” He knows that’s a long shot.
