Suspense over whether Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and give up its enriched uranium and nuclear weapons programs expired on Tuesday last week without incident.
President Trump said the U.S. was “locked and loaded” to launch an operation against Iran that would have been the “biggest attack since World War II.” He also said this was Tehran’s “last chance” and that the regime faced “decapitation” if they didn’t make a deal.
But all the Iranian leadership heard was “Yada yada.”
That’s because the White House’s follow-up has been underwhelming — a lot of huffing and puffing by Trump, but the Iranian regime is still in place, now even dictating conditions to reopen the Strait.
On Saturday, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council issued a statement laying out those conditions, translated by Google as follows:
“1. Never threaten Iran with any language or insult the sanctities of this nation;
2. End the war and aggression against Iran and its allies in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen, and Iraq forever;
3. Lift the naval blockade and withdraw its military forces (naval and air) from around Iran;
4. Pay the damages of the two wars of aggression and imposition on Iran without any reduction or reduction;
5. Lift the cruel and illegal sanctions against the Iranian nation; and
6. Unconditionally release the frozen and stolen assets of the Iranian people.”
Iran’s Major General Ahmad Vahidi continues to taunt Trump, saying that “Iran will continue working on nuclear weapons as long as the U.S. and Israel possess them. As long as the U.S. and Israel possess nuclear weapons, we will continue working on them for our national security. If they disarm, we will disarm.”
Both are hard red lines for Trump, yet he has a simple response for neither.
On Monday, Trump responded with another post on Truth Social, demanding compensation for “all of the people that [Iran] killed and gravely wounded with their roadside bombs and many conflicts … including the families of those killed on the USS Cole, and thousands of others killed in combat.”
That is likely to have no impact. However, Adm. Brad Cooper’s visit to Israel to meet with Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir and other senior military officials did. Was this messaging, or was it final planning and coordination for the “biggest attack since World War II?”
On Sunday. Trump seemed to reverse course, though. He told Axios he was “low-keying it” when it comes to the war with Iran — “prepared to allow economic pressure on Iran to mount” as opposed to ordering a new military offensive.
“We are only semi-negotiating with them. We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money” adding that Iran “is in very bad shape economically.”
But Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragh says they are passing messages through intermediary countries — not directly or semi-negotiating with the U.S. Neither Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner nor Vice President JD Vance is in the room as Iran and Oman negotiate their ‘deal’ to reopen the Strait.
Is Trump merely mirror-imaging, assuming Iranian leaders are rational actors? Retired U.S. Army General Jack Keane did not use such terms specifically during his interview with Larry Kudlow on his Fox Business show — but he did explain Iran’s decision making brilliantly.
Iran views the Strait of Hormuz as a strategic asset and will not give it up willingly. Keane does not believe that Iran’s leaders will “bend to our will,” but that they think they have the upper hand and are “bending the will of the U.S. by controlling the Strait of Hormuz.” They intend to drag this out with unacceptable conditions and more attacks on shipping and their Gulf State neighbors in order to reopen the strait, believing midterm elections will eventually force Trump’s hand.
Everything Trump has said about the effectiveness of the U.S. blockade, Iran’s economic situation and the status of its conventional military is accurate — only it does not have the effect the Trump administration gives it.
The regime — the “different group” Trump refers to — is not being threatened. Its members do not care about their people’s suffering — only about their regime’s survival.
The regime and its center of gravity — the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — needs to be put back in the crosshairs of both the U.S. and Israel. It is time to remove Iran’s leverage over the strait and the regime itself, which simply cannot remain in power.
The pros of regime change outweigh the cons. When the regime is removed, Iran’s enriched uranium, nuclear, ballistic missile and drone programs, support to proxies, threats to their Gulf State neighbors and their own citizens, and safe passage through the Strait can be resolved with the succeeding government.
Iran is the root cause of conflict throughout the Middle East. The White House needs to stop trying to negotiate with it.
Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer and led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. They are the co-founders of INTREP360 and the INTREP360 Intelligence Report on Substack.
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