The author of the Democratic National Committee’s 2024 election “autopsy” confirmed an Axios report that he concluded the war in Gaza hurt Kamala Harris politically — and that he’d privately shared that assessment with a pro-Palestinian group.
- He said he drafted that finding late last year but never submitted it to party leadership.
Why it matters: Democrats have spent months debating whether the Biden administration’s support for Israel during its war on Hamas contributed to Harris’ defeat.
- Moderates disputed its electoral significance, while progressives argued that the toll of Israel’s war on Gaza civilians drained support from young people, liberals and Arab Americans.
Zoom in: Paul Rivera, who wrote the DNC autopsy, told Axios in an interview that his review of the 2024 election found the war in Gaza cost Harris votes, particularly in Michigan communities with large Arab American populations, such as Dearborn.
- Rivera, who no longer advises the DNC, this week published his own 564-page report of the 2024 election, which examines the electoral impact of the war in Gaza, among other topics.
- When the DNC released its autopsy earlier this year, some Democrats criticized it for omitting any discussion of the war in Gaza.
- In his new document, Rivera concludes that Harris lost tens of thousands of votes in Michigan amid backlash from the Israel-Hamas war, particularly in Dearborn, Dearborn Heights and Hamtramck, where Green Party support surged as activists organized against the Democratic ticket.
- He contends these losses accounted for a meaningful share of the state’s shift toward President Trump, but was only one of several factors behind Harris’ defeat in the state.
Rivera wrote that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the fallout from it in the U.S. is a “complex situation.” But, he added, the “political analysis is simple — the electoral results and voting shifts in Michigan and elsewhere demonstrate the impact the crisis had on the Harris campaign.”
- Rivera included in his new report an AP photo of a person holding literature distributed in Michigan in 2024. It read, “Do Not Vote Trump. Do Not Vote Harris. Do Not Vote Genocide.”
- He called it “a warning and a reminder of the stakes for Democrats moving forward.”
- At the same time, he acknowledged that Jewish Americans have faced increasing antisemitism in the U.S. Rivera praised Ken Martin, the DNC’s embattled chair, for convening a working group on the Middle East.
The other side: Many moderate Democrats, including those who support Israel, say Gaza’s impact on the 2024 election has been overblown.
- They point to surveys indicating the topic is not among many voters’ top concerns.
- Separate from this issue, Rivera has come under fire from Democrats across the ideological spectrum for what they view more broadly as a botched autopsy.
- Rivera told the New York Times in a story published this week that he submitted a chapter on other topics that the DNC did not include in its publicly released autopsy. The DNC denied that it was given the chapter.
- The chapter Rivera claimed he shared with the DNC only briefly mentions the Israel-Palestine conflict, listing it alongside events such as 9/11, the 2008 financial crisis and Hurricane Katrina as occurrences that “have shaped electoral outcomes.”
Flashback: Axios reported in February that officials working on the autopsy, which was secret then, had determined that the war in Gaza had eroded support for Harris among some voters — and had told the pro-Palestinian group IMEU Policy Project that in a private meeting.
