{"id":8092,"date":"2026-07-16T23:53:41","date_gmt":"2026-07-16T18:53:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=8092"},"modified":"2026-07-16T23:53:41","modified_gmt":"2026-07-16T18:53:41","slug":"can-the-new-progressive-wave-win-in-a-rural-red-state","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=8092","title":{"rendered":"Can the New Progressive Wave Win in a Rural Red State?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><script>\r\n  atOptions = {\r\n    'key' : '644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6',\r\n    'format' : 'iframe',\r\n    'height' : 90,\r\n    'width' : 728,\r\n    'params' : {}\r\n  };\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script src=\"https:\/\/www.highperformanceformat.com\/644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"article-content\">\n<p>As a smoke jumper, Sam Forstag fought a relentless game of inches.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The job is a hard one. Firefighters who parachute in when blazes break out deep in the forest need to build a barrier to beat back the flames. They use chainsaws and other tools to cut down to the hard mineral soil, creating a fire line with no fuel to keep feeding the inferno. It\u2019s grueling work that can be set back in an instant by a fresh bolt of lightning. And Forstag learned all too well that, even when the forecast seems set to turn wet in a way that might help fend off the flames, you can\u2019t rely on weather to help hold the line.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe rains don\u2019t always come,\u201d Forstag explained in a conversation with TPM on Tuesday.<\/p>\n<p>Now, after winning a different kind of fight and earning the Democratic Party nomination for one of Montana\u2019s two House seats, Forstag finds himself in the center of another firestorm. The recent stretch of Democratic primary races were defined by candidates like Forstag \u2014 progressive outsiders who have challenged the party establishment.<\/p>\n<p>In especially high-profile races in New York City and Denver, Colorado, candidates backed by socialist organizations defeated moderate Democrats with entrenched bases of support. Data indicates this wave was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/@huntersfeed\/video\/7662464126408576269\" target=\"_blank\">propelled by new voters<\/a> who expanded the electorate. While these victories have been met with excitement in some circles, others have likened the progressive insurgency <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/opinion\/socialists-lead-democrats-into-the-tea-party-trap-c991b290\" target=\"_blank\">to the GOP Tea Party movement<\/a> and argue it could have dire consequences.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Forstag shares some similarities with the candidates who pulled off shock wins in blue cities. He <a href=\"https:\/\/montanafreepress.org\/2026\/05\/20\/jacobsen-busse-most-favorable-montanas-western-district-primaries\/\" target=\"_blank\">was an underdog<\/a> against a former gubernatorial nominee. Forstag also drew endorsements from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and <a href=\"https:\/\/montanafreepress.org\/2026\/05\/28\/will-ocasio-cortezs-rally-for-forstag-matter\/\" target=\"_blank\">Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.)<\/a>, which led to his bid being <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/06\/03\/us\/politics\/montana-democratic-house-busse-forstag-rains.html\" target=\"_blank\">widely seen as a test<\/a> for the kind of new left messaging that\u2019s helped define this cycle for Democrats.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>All of this puts Forstag at the center of some of the most interesting and crucial conversations in politics right now. And, while the new left wave has clearly scored in staunchly blue territory, Forstag\u2019s campaign poses an interesting question: Can a progressive outsider experience similar success in a largely rural red state?<\/p>\n<p>For his part, Forstag rejects the premise Montana doesn\u2019t have the potential to swing. He cited the state\u2019s history of union activity and more recent shifts in statewide representation.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cMontana just saw its first Republican supermajority in state history in 2023. Like, Montana is not a deep red state,\u201d said Forstag. \u201cI mean within the last 12 or 13 years, we had a 50-50 split in our state legislature. Two years ago we had a Democratic U.S. senator. We had a Democratic governor until, what, 2020? This is a brand new phenomenon that Democrats are being wiped out.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Forstag blames the recent growth of the GOP in his state and more broadly on what he continually describes as a \u201cdisconnect\u201d between Democratic politicians and voters. He is adamant that the party needs a new approach.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe Democratic Party has really fucked everything up. We are in a position where we have no power at the federal level and all of this happened as we have one of the least popular presidents ever elected in office because we could not offer a more hopeful alternative or solution,\u201d Forstag said. \u201cI mean, at the end of 2024, we had a president telling us all that the economy is better than we think it is. Well, I don\u2019t think there\u2019s any better articulation of a disconnect between our political leaders and what life is like on the ground.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>As Forstag sees it, the party\u2019s main mistake was failing to address the economic challenges faced by voters in rhetorical or concrete terms.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAt the end of 2024, I was making $19 bucks an hour jumping out of airplanes for the federal government in a community where you cannot find a home for less than a half million dollars \u2014 and I was seven years in,\u201d he explained. \u201cSome of these guys and gals are 20-plus years in making the same wage on the same job. And if that is your situation, then your life did not improve under four years of Democratic control.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Forstag cited rising rents and private equity buying up mobile homes in his home state as \u201call people talk about when I go to a bar in Missoula.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cRent has doubled or tripled over the last 10 years in Missoula. It\u2019s worse in \u2026 Bozeman, in my district. It\u2019s worse in the Flathead Valley,\u201d he said, later adding, \u201cThis is what normal people are dealing with on a day-to-day basis and it\u2019s this fundamental disconnect, right?\u201d<\/p>\n<div class=\"GalleryImageWrapper\">\n<h2 class=\"GalleryImageWrapper__Title\"\/>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"566\" width=\"804\" src=\"https:\/\/talkingpointsmemo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-16-at-2.20.36\u202fPM.png?w=804\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1552450\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/talkingpointsmemo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-16-at-2.20.36\u202fPM.png 1534w, https:\/\/talkingpointsmemo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-16-at-2.20.36\u202fPM.png?resize=768,541 768w, https:\/\/talkingpointsmemo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-16-at-2.20.36\u202fPM.png?resize=804,566 804w, https:\/\/talkingpointsmemo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-16-at-2.20.36\u202fPM.png?resize=600,422 600w, https:\/\/talkingpointsmemo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-16-at-2.20.36\u202fPM.png?resize=1000,704 1000w, https:\/\/talkingpointsmemo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-16-at-2.20.36\u202fPM.png?resize=1200,845 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 804px) 100vw, 804px\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Sam Forstag appears in a campaign advertisement. (Photo: YouTube) <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Their loss in the last presidential race has led some Democratic operatives and organizations to actively recruit candidates like Forstag who mix progressive positions with working class careers and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/article\/politics\/graham-platner-maine-senate-2\/\" target=\"_blank\">traditional masculinity that goes along with them<\/a>. This drive had a notable setback in Maine where, after a lack of vetting, Graham Platner secured the party\u2019s Senate nomination <a href=\"https:\/\/talkingpointsmemo.com\/news\/graham-platner-drops-out-maine-senate-replacement\" target=\"_blank\">before withdrawing<\/a> after becoming beset by a series of scandals, including an allegation of sexual assault.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Forstag is about as blunt when discussing the party\u2019s issues with fielding working-class candidates as he was when talking with TPM about the broader messaging missteps. He blamed it on \u201cpolicy failures for decades,\u201d namely Democrats <a href=\"https:\/\/time.com\/4922542\/democrats-citizen-united\/\" target=\"_blank\">not universally and aggressively<\/a> pushing through campaign finance reform despite Republican opposition.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere\u2019s a reason that it\u2019s so rare to see a working person even on the ballot as a major party nominee for any federal office. It\u2019s because the system is not designed for normal working people to be able to make it in a position of power,\u201d Forstag explained.<\/p>\n<p>Forstag has a compelling personal backstory. In addition to serving as a first responder under trying circumstances, Forstag was the vice president of his union, National Federation of Federal Employees (NFFE) Local 60, where he led a successful campaign to organize the last non-union forest in Montana. According to Forstag, he decided to run for office after seeing the dramatic impact of job cuts \u2014 from President Donald Trump and near-trillionaire Elon Musk\u2019s DOGE initiative \u2014 on his colleagues in the federal workforce.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhat the DOGE cuts looked like in Montana for the forest service or for public lands agencies was actually the lowest paid employees that we have being just absolutely gutted and cut,\u201d Forstag explained. \u201cThey said it was all about government efficiency. There are massive inefficiencies in the federal government, believe me, I\u2019ve come face-to-face with them. It is not people swinging a tool in the woods for $12 bucks an hour. \u2026 And those are the people whose jobs they came after.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In his role with the union, Forstag said he sought help from the man who currently represents Montana\u2019s First District.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhen I called Ryan Zinke, the Republican sitting in the seat right now, I got crickets,\u201d Forstag said. \u201cSo, I decided, if he\u2019s going to come after all my members and my co-workers\u2019 jobs, I\u2019m going to come and take his.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Forstag ultimately had to leave his position in the U.S. Forest Service to run for office. Zinke <a href=\"https:\/\/montanafreepress.org\/2026\/03\/02\/rep-ryan-zinke-retire-health\/\" target=\"_blank\">announced his decision not to seek re-election<\/a> in March, leaving a wide open race. Aaron Flint, a <a href=\"https:\/\/montanafreepress.org\/2026\/04\/13\/in-montanas-western-district-aaron-flint-is-the-talked-up-candidate-for-congress\/\" target=\"_blank\">pro-Trump veteran and local talk radio host<\/a>, won the GOP primary last month.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>As he approaches the general election, Forstag believes a focus on economic issues is crucial.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere\u2019s been a big conversation about identity that I\u2019ve lived through, through my adult life, from the left, right? And that has in large part been healthy, but it seems like we forgot about the most important fundamental part of people\u2019s identity, which is our economic identity,\u201d he said. \u201cWhat is the thing that is woven through every piece of existence if you\u2019re a working person? It\u2019s how much money do I have? Can I afford my fucking rent at the end of the month? It\u2019s like, well, what\u2019s that noise that my car is making? \u2026\u00a0 That\u2019s an emotional thing that you carry in your chest.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In the wake of wins by New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and other progressives who homed in on economic issues, \u201caffordability\u201d gained traction <a href=\"https:\/\/talkingpointsmemo.com\/where-things-stand\/bernie-sanders-definitely-doesnt-think-trump-is-the-affordability-president\" target=\"_blank\">as a key talking point<\/a> for many politicians. But that was also frustrating for Forstag who saw them as late adopters.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI\u2019ll be frank, the term \u2018affordability\u2019 kind of pisses me off,\u201d said Forstag. \u201cBecause like six months ago this became the watchword for candidates across the country. And what that feels like on the ground is where the hell have you been living for the last 10 years?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>As much as he has clear criticism for Democratic messaging, Forstag certainly also does not appreciate how Republicans have talked about identity and the economy.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis messaging on the right where they told you the system\u2019s broken, but then they blamed all the wrong people and told you it\u2019s because of poor people, or brown people, or queer people. Like, none of those people are making you poor,\u201d Forstag said. \u201cIt\u2019s an incredibly small slice of incredibly wealthy people who are using the wealth that they\u2019re accumulating to keep these systems broken. \u2026 That is who our enemy is.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Forstag thinks Democrats\u2019 failure to address Americans\u2019 economic situation is why this rhetoric has gained traction.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI\u2019ve watched a lot of the people that I work with, my friends, become the people who vote these schmucks into power. And most of the people I work with, I mean, a\u00a0 third of my union members or coworkers \u2026 they don\u2019t do it because they\u2019re racist or xenophobes. They do it because their life is getting worse,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Messaging isn\u2019t the only thing that Forstag believes has helped him connect with voters in Montana. Forstag also believes being a union man was an essential component of his win.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn large part, it was solidarity. We got through the primary with over a dozen unions supporting me. I mean, not just my own union. but brothers and sisters in unions across the state, some of whom, you know, probably most of their members did not vote for a Democrat last year,\u201d Forstag said, adding, \u201cMany of them were very excited to finally see somebody who, you know, actually can identify with what it\u2019s like to be a union member.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Forstag didn\u2019t take the bait when I brought up the problems with Platner\u2019s candidacy in Maine. However, he eagerly jumped when I asked if recruiting leadership should be part of Democrats\u2019 strategy as they strive to recruit working-class candidates.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think it damn sure better be,\u201d he said. \u201cThe Democratic Party I grew up with was the party of the working class. We were the party of the unions. We were the party of young people. Nothing about this last election was that party.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>As Forstag sees it, the path forward for both his campaign and the party is painfully clear. He threw his hands up as he summed up the assessment.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe frustrating thing is the formula seems so obvious,\u201d Forstag said.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><script type=\"text\/javascript\">\n    window.fbAsyncInit = function() {\n      FB.init({\n        appId: \"101800829865996\",\n        xfbml: true,\n        version: ' v2.6'\n      });\n      window.fbAsyncInit.__didInit = true;\n    };\n    (function(d, s, id) {\n      var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];\n      if (d.getElementById(id)) {\n        return;\n      }\n      js = d.createElement(s);\n      js.id = id;\n      js.src = \"https:\/\/connect.facebook.net\/en_US\/sdk.js\";\n      fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs);\n    }(document, 'script', 'facebook-jssdk'));\n  <\/script><script async src=\"\/\/www.tiktok.com\/embed.js\"><\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><script async=\"async\" data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"https:\/\/pl30214220.effectivecpmnetwork.com\/9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<div id=\"container-9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\"><\/div>\r\n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As a smoke jumper, Sam Forstag fought a relentless game of inches.\u00a0 The job is a hard one. Firefighters who parachute in when blazes break out deep in the forest need to build a barrier to beat back the flames. They use chainsaws and other tools to cut down to the hard mineral soil, creating&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8093,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/talkingpointsmemo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-16-at-2.15.05\u202fPM.png","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8092","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-political-news"],"brizy_media":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8092","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8092"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8092\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/8093"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8092"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8092"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8092"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}