{"id":5145,"date":"2026-07-13T16:00:25","date_gmt":"2026-07-13T11:00:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=5145"},"modified":"2026-07-13T16:00:25","modified_gmt":"2026-07-13T11:00:25","slug":"a-super-el-nino-is-brewing-how-bad-would-historic-weather-system-get","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=5145","title":{"rendered":"A Super El Ni\u00f1o is brewing: How bad would historic weather system get"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><script>\r\n  atOptions = {\r\n    'key' : '644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6',\r\n    'format' : 'iframe',\r\n    'height' : 90,\r\n    'width' : 728,\r\n    'params' : {}\r\n  };\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script src=\"https:\/\/www.highperformanceformat.com\/644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div data-element=\"story-body\" data-subscriber-content=\"\">\n<p>Predicting the weather is always tricky, with even the most solid forecasts sometimes not living up to the hype. <\/p>\n<p>But over the last few months, the world\u2019s weather experts have become more united in the belief that we were going to be hit by a new<a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2026-07-09\/strong-el-nino-now-virtual-certainty-what-it-means-for-california\"> El Ni\u00f1o climate pattern,<\/a> and the consensus of computer models suggests it will probably be a <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2026-07-09\/strong-el-nino-now-virtual-certainty-what-it-means-for-california\">very strong<\/a> one. <\/p>\n<p>California is no stranger to the effects of El Ni\u00f1o, with the pattern associated with some of the state\u2019s most memorable destructive winter seasons.<\/p>\n<p>Scientists are continuing to monitor conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which offer indications on how El Ni\u00f1o is progressing. But here is a look at where we stand now with the forecast:<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"what-do-the-latest-models-show\" class=\"subhead\">What do the latest models show?<\/h2>\n<p>The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u2019s Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that there\u2019s a 97% chance El Ni\u00f1o will be either \u201cstrong\u201d or \u201cvery strong\u201d over a three-month period ending this December. There\u2019s an 81% chance it\u2019ll be \u201cvery strong.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Colloquially, \u201cvery strong\u201d El Ni\u00f1os have been referred to as \u201csuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1os. <\/p>\n<p>Officials warn that the climate pattern \u2014 characterized by warmer water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean \u2014 will also increase the risk of heat waves on land and at sea, which are already being exacerbated by human-caused global warming.<\/p>\n<p>Authorities last month declared the arrival of El Ni\u00f1o, which typically lasts nine to 12 months. It will take time for the climate pattern to rev up. <\/p>\n<h2 id=\"what-exactly-is-el-nino\" class=\"subhead\">What exactly is El Ni\u00f1o?<\/h2>\n<p>El Ni\u00f1o is a pattern that typically emerges every two to seven years, and lasts nine to 12 months, according to <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/oceanservice.noaa.gov\/facts\/ninonina.html\" target=\"_blank\">NOAA<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The climate pattern is marked the combination of warmer water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.climate.gov\/news-features\/blogs\/enso\/rise-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a\" target=\"_blank\">coupled<\/a> with changing conditions in the atmosphere, in which the typical east-to-west trade winds along the equator weaken or even reverse. <\/p>\n<p>When the east-to-west trade winds weaken, the sea level rises a tad in the western Pacific and creates what\u2019s called a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, said Jon Gottschalck, the Climate Prediction Center\u2019s operational prediction branch chief. \u201cBasically, it\u2019s a wave in the ocean that will bring warm water from the western Pacific to the central and eastern Pacific.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>When the temperature difference diminishes between the warmer western Pacific and the cooler eastern Pacific, the typical east-to-west trade winds decrease even further. That creates a positive feedback loop \u2014 weaker winds beget more warm water shifting to the east, which weakens winds even more. <\/p>\n<h2 id=\"what-are-the-potential-impacts\" class=\"subhead\">What are the potential impacts?<\/h2>\n<p>El Ni\u00f1o typically brings different weather impacts across the world, depending on the season. <\/p>\n<p>As warm water extends off the coast of Mexico, Central America and northern South American during an El Ni\u00f1o, that causes jet energy in the atmosphere to typically bring more stormy weather than usual to the southern United States, including Southern California, Texas and Florida, during the winter, said Ariel Cohen, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard. <\/p>\n<p>That also typically brings drier-than-normal conditions farther to the north, like the Pacific Northwest, according to Cohen. <\/p>\n<p>Worldwide, an El Ni\u00f1o typically offers Australia and northern South America with very dry conditions, and can trigger drought, Cohen said. Meanwhile, wetter conditions may prevail over eastern Africa. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere\u2019s really a wide array of impacts that can come that vary significantly from place to place across the globe,\u201d Cohen said. <\/p>\n<p>El Ni\u00f1o also increase the risk of heat waves on land and at sea, which are already being exacerbated by human-caused global warming.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe know that temperatures are warming in the long term, linked to human-caused climate change, and El Ni\u00f1o acts to boost those temperatures temporarily,\u201d climate scientist Zachary Labe of the nonprofit Climate Central said. \u201cThis would indicate a very high likelihood that we will be breaking new global temperature records in just a few months.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"what-might-southern-california-expect\" class=\"subhead\">What might Southern California expect?<\/h2>\n<p>For Southern California, it would mean a higher chance of above-average rainfall, risking a winter of <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/jetstream\/enso_impacts\" target=\"_blank\">flash floods and landslides.<\/a> <\/p>\n<p>During three of the four \u201cvery strong\u201d El Ni\u00f1os in the global record, downtown Los Angeles got significantly more rain than average. In two \u2014 1982-83 and 1997-98 \u2014 downtown L.A. got more than double its usual yearly rainfall.<\/p>\n<p>But the connection is not absolute. During the last \u201cvery strong\u201d <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/science\/sciencenow\/la-sci-sn-el-nino-california-20170214-story.html\">El Ni\u00f1o in 2015-16<\/a>, downtown got only half its typical annual rainfall.<\/p>\n<p>The last El Ni\u00f1o, in 2023-24, was a \u201cstrong\u201d one. For the water year that ended Sept. 30, 2024, downtown L.A. got 22.15 inches of rain to downtown Los Angeles \u2014 that\u2019s 155% of of the average annual rainfall of 14.25 inches. That winter brought with it hundreds of landslides across Los Angeles and the <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2024-02-11\/l-a-staved-off-disaster-with-this-storm-extreme-weather-is-testing-our-luck\">second-rainiest three-day period for downtown L.A.<\/a> since recordkeeping began in 1877.<\/p>\n<p>There was also well-above average rainfall across coastal Southern California and slightly above-normal precipitation in coastal Northern California, the state Department of Conservation <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.conservation.ca.gov\/cgs\/landslides\/el-nino\" target=\"_blank\">said<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>But not all of California got the bounty of precipitation during that El Ni\u00f1o. There was below-normal precipitation in interior areas like the Sierra Nevada and southeastern California deserts.<\/p>\n<p>More high-tide flooding is also possible in an El Ni\u00f1o. The \u201cvery strong\u201d El Ni\u00f1o of 2015-16 brought \u201crecord coastal erosion along many California beaches,\u201d the state Coastal Commission said. <\/p>\n<p>This year\u2019s El Ni\u00f1o is also expected to prolong an already existing marine heat wave \u2014 currently in effect for reasons unrelated to El Ni\u00f1o \u2014 off the Southern California coast. <\/p>\n<div class=\"enhancement\" data-click=\"enhancement\" data-align-center=\"\">\n<figure class=\"figure m-0\"> <picture><source type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/3300663\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1042x938+0+0\/resize\/320x288!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F9a%2F7f%2Fca7eecbf4b4a93bf37fba321d8ce%2Ffig1-slp-wind-ssta.png 320w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/931442a\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1042x938+0+0\/resize\/568x511!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F9a%2F7f%2Fca7eecbf4b4a93bf37fba321d8ce%2Ffig1-slp-wind-ssta.png 568w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/1b5a6ea\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1042x938+0+0\/resize\/768x691!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F9a%2F7f%2Fca7eecbf4b4a93bf37fba321d8ce%2Ffig1-slp-wind-ssta.png 768w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/6060a32\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1042x938+0+0\/resize\/1024x922!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F9a%2F7f%2Fca7eecbf4b4a93bf37fba321d8ce%2Ffig1-slp-wind-ssta.png 1024w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/b1aa67f\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1042x938+0+0\/resize\/1200x1080!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F9a%2F7f%2Fca7eecbf4b4a93bf37fba321d8ce%2Ffig1-slp-wind-ssta.png 1200w\" sizes=\"100vw\"\/><img class=\"image\" alt=\"A marine heat wave in the ocean off the coast of Southern California and further west of Northern California and Oregon.\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/6988554\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1042x938+0+0\/resize\/320x288!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F9a%2F7f%2Fca7eecbf4b4a93bf37fba321d8ce%2Ffig1-slp-wind-ssta.png 320w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/68e990b\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1042x938+0+0\/resize\/568x511!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F9a%2F7f%2Fca7eecbf4b4a93bf37fba321d8ce%2Ffig1-slp-wind-ssta.png 568w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/0b387ba\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1042x938+0+0\/resize\/768x691!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F9a%2F7f%2Fca7eecbf4b4a93bf37fba321d8ce%2Ffig1-slp-wind-ssta.png 768w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/d700885\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1042x938+0+0\/resize\/1024x922!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F9a%2F7f%2Fca7eecbf4b4a93bf37fba321d8ce%2Ffig1-slp-wind-ssta.png 1024w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/2216feb\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1042x938+0+0\/resize\/1200x1080!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F9a%2F7f%2Fca7eecbf4b4a93bf37fba321d8ce%2Ffig1-slp-wind-ssta.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, 100vw\" width=\"1200\" height=\"1080\" src=\"https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/2216feb\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1042x938+0+0\/resize\/1200x1080!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F9a%2F7f%2Fca7eecbf4b4a93bf37fba321d8ce%2Ffig1-slp-wind-ssta.png\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\"\/>   <\/picture>\n<div class=\"figure-content\">\n<p>A marine heat wave in the ocean off the coast of Southern California and further west of Northern California and Oregon. <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n<h2 id=\"what-about-warming-ocean-waters\" class=\"subhead\">What about warming ocean waters?<\/h2>\n<p>Scientists are raising alarms over the planet\u2019s warming oceans. El Ni\u00f1o typically increases global temperatures, the World Meteorological Organization said, and high sea-surface temperatures can \u201cintensify heat extremes over nearby land areas.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>\u201cAn El Ni\u00f1o event is a source of heat for the atmosphere, increasing global temperature and shifting weather patterns across the globe,\u201d the World Meteorological Organization said. <\/p>\n<p>On July 1, officials confirmed that the global sea surface temperature in June hit a <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/marine.copernicus.eu\/press\/press-releases\/copernicus-marine-and-copernicus-climate-change-daily-global-sea-surface\" target=\"_blank\">record<\/a> for this time of year.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cCurrent conditions could indicate the beginning of a new phase, leading, once more, to uncharted territory. With ocean temperatures at these levels and El Ni\u00f1o on the horizon, we are likely to see more temperature records fall in the coming months,\u201d said Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, an arm of the European Union.<\/p>\n<p>Warming ocean waters have wide-ranging effects, scientists say. They can provide extra energy to storms and increase evaporation, boosting the chance for extreme precipitation and flooding; contribute to sea level rise; exacerbate ice melt and stress marine ecosystems, <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/marine.copernicus.eu\/press\/press-releases\/copernicus-marine-et-copernicus-changement-climatique-les-temperatures\" target=\"_blank\">according to a statement<\/a> from the Copernicus Climate Change Service and Copernicus Marine Service.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<script async=\"async\" data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"https:\/\/pl30214220.effectivecpmnetwork.com\/9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<div id=\"container-9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\"><\/div>\r\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Predicting the weather is always tricky, with even the most solid forecasts sometimes not living up to the hype. But over the last few months, the world\u2019s weather experts have become more united in the belief that we were going to be hit by a new El Ni\u00f1o climate pattern, and the consensus of computer&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5146,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/d317018\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/6066x3185+0+430\/resize\/1200x630!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F63%2F3f%2Fdc0cc05945d9927a292d1571c820%2F1406433-me-laweather-feb-rain-rc25.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5145","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-hub"],"brizy_media":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5145","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5145"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5145\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/5146"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5145"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5145"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5145"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}