{"id":46538,"date":"2026-08-15T11:10:44","date_gmt":"2026-08-15T06:10:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=46538"},"modified":"2026-08-15T11:10:44","modified_gmt":"2026-08-15T06:10:44","slug":"super-el-nino-is-super-likely-as-california-braces-for-impact","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=46538","title":{"rendered":"&#8216;Super&#8217; El Ni\u00f1o is super likely as California braces for impact"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><script>\r\n  atOptions = {\r\n    'key' : '644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6',\r\n    'format' : 'iframe',\r\n    'height' : 90,\r\n    'width' : 728,\r\n    'params' : {}\r\n  };\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script src=\"https:\/\/www.highperformanceformat.com\/644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/b7f07d3\/2147483647\/strip\/false\/crop\/3992x2661+0+0\/resize\/1500x1000!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fdc%2F75%2F3764dc7d4217ba2da2c4705e97d6%2F1565167-me-flood-long-beach-kek-002.jpg\" \/><\/p>\n<div data-element=\"story-body\" data-subscriber-content=\"\">\n<p>A \u201csuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1o now has a 95% chance of developing this year as the climate pattern gains dramatic strength in the Pacific Ocean \u2014 leaving officials across California and beyond bracing for a wet and potentially destructive winter. <\/p>\n<p>The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u2019s Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that the El Ni\u00f1o has strengthened in the last month, and there\u2019s a roughly 7 in 10 chance it will be the strongest such pattern since 1950.<\/p>\n<p>Of the three other powerful El Ni\u00f1os on record during that span \u2014 in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 \u2014 two brought above-average rain to Southern California. The 2015-16 El Ni\u00f1o, while very strong in the ocean, did not, though the pattern was blamed for <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/science\/sciencenow\/la-sci-sn-el-nino-california-20170214-story.html\">record beach erosion<\/a> along the California coast. <\/p>\n<p>El Ni\u00f1o is a climate pattern characterized by warmer ocean waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, coupled with changing atmospheric conditions, in which the typical east-to-west trade winds weaken or even reverse.<\/p>\n<p>That shift can put Southern California in the crosshairs of potentially potent tropical moisture, though the pattern\u2019s effects vary by area.<\/p>\n<p>If El Ni\u00f1o behaves like it typically does, Southern California would expect above-average precipitation, generally from cold-frontal storms that dip farther south than usual, according to Alexander Gershunov, research meteorologist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe forecast has been evolving over the last few months, and is honing in on a strong El Ni\u00f1o, and possibly an unprecedented one,\u201d Gershunov said. \u201cWe may already be seeing some of the impacts from El Ni\u00f1o, because even though it\u2019s a regional pattern in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, it\u2019s such a huge area that warms up during El Ni\u00f1o that it adds a lot of heat to the global climate system.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>Added to the trend caused by human-caused global warming, \u201cwe\u2019re basically on track to set a new global temperature record this year,\u201d Gershunov said. \u201cWe\u2019ve all been feeling the heat that\u2019s associated with that.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>The average global surface temperature in July was among the hottest for that month in the modern record, which stretches back to 1850, tying the record from July 2024, <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncei.noaa.gov\/access\/monitoring\/monthly-report\/global\/202607\" target=\"_blank\">according<\/a> to NOAA\u2019s National Centers for Environmental Information. <\/p>\n<p>Looking forward, parts of coastal California have a higher-than-50% chance of above-average temperatures for August, the NCEI <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncei.noaa.gov\/access\/monitoring\/monthly-report\/national\/202607\" target=\"_blank\">said<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>Among the risks El Ni\u00f1o poses to California are stronger-than-usual hurricane activity in the eastern Pacific, which has sent hazardous and at times deadly high waves to the state\u2019s shores. The last El Ni\u00f1o, over the 2023-24 season, coincided with the northward march of Hurricane Hilary toward Southern California \u2014 though that system had officially degenerated into a post-tropical low by the time it reached the state, officials said months later. <\/p>\n<p>The risk for Southern California from an arriving tropical storm is not so much strong winds, but \u201cjust a lot of tropical moisture that leads to torrential rains. This year, it\u2019s more likely that the tropical storm may make it out here intact. But it\u2019s still a very low-probability event,\u201d Gershunov said. <\/p>\n<p>In the modern historical record, past El Ni\u00f1os have never been warmer than 4.5 degrees above baseline. But there is now a 69% chance that this El Ni\u00f1o will reach or exceed that threshold in the tropical Pacific. <\/p>\n<p>That \u201chas never happened in our historical record dating back to 1950,\u201d Michelle L\u2019Heureux, the El Ni\u00f1o team lead for the Climate Prediction Center, told The Times. <\/p>\n<p>The last record set was during the 1982-83 El Ni\u00f1o season, where the Relative Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index was 4.32 degrees  above baseline.<\/p>\n<p>The most potent  type of El Ni\u00f1o is officially designated as \u201cvery strong,\u201d though it\u2019s often referred to as a \u201csuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1o. Reaching that threshold requires temperatures in the equatorial Pacific to be at least 3.6 degrees above baseline. <\/p>\n<p>For the three-month period of October, November and December, NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 95% chance that El Ni\u00f1o will be \u201cvery strong\u201d and a 5% chance it will merely be \u201cstrong.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>Historically, the effects of El Ni\u00f1o on Southern California\u2019s rainfall and snowfall become more obvious from December onward, with January to March \u201cas the prime season for impacts,\u201d L\u2019Heureux said. <\/p>\n<p>So far, there\u2019s no conclusive evidence that El Ni\u00f1o is affecting the West Coast, NOAA research oceanographer Michael Jacox told The Times. The California coast is, however, being affected <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/environment\/story\/2026-04-16\/ocean-california-sst-enso-blob-marine-warming\">by a marine heat wave<\/a> that isn\u2019t currently related to El Ni\u00f1o, especially in Southern California, which experts say is a factor in the mugginess being felt along some coastal areas. <\/p>\n<p>However, Gershunov noted that elevated hurricane activity in the eastern Pacific is likely related to El Ni\u00f1o, which other meteorologists say has also contributed to the feeling of humidity in Southern California. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe are into the time of year now when El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s impacts could be felt any time; this initial impact should be due to coastal trapped waves coming from the south,\u201d Jacox said. <\/p>\n<p>When looking at July alone, ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are the second-highest for the month on record, according to L\u2019Heureux. Temperatures in the area of the ocean used to calculate El Ni\u00f1o were already 2.41 degrees above baseline. <\/p>\n<p>The only July in modern times where that reading was stronger was in 1997, when the ocean temperatures there were 2.74 degrees above the baseline. <\/p>\n<p>El Nino\u2019s effects have already been noticed in other parts of the world. The Indian monsoon season arrived late, a factor in the tremendous heat waves that have hit India, Gershunov said.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<script async=\"async\" data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"https:\/\/pl30214220.effectivecpmnetwork.com\/9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<div id=\"container-9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\"><\/div>\r\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A \u201csuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1o now has a 95% chance of developing this year as the climate pattern gains dramatic strength in the Pacific Ocean \u2014 leaving officials across California and beyond bracing for a wet and potentially destructive winter. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u2019s Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that the El Ni\u00f1o has&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":46539,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/0d7c683\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/3992x2096+0+283\/resize\/1200x630!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fdc%2F75%2F3764dc7d4217ba2da2c4705e97d6%2F1565167-me-flood-long-beach-kek-002.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46538","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-hub"],"brizy_media":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46538","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=46538"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46538\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/46539"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=46538"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=46538"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=46538"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}