{"id":43889,"date":"2026-08-14T07:58:39","date_gmt":"2026-08-14T02:58:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=43889"},"modified":"2026-08-14T07:58:39","modified_gmt":"2026-08-14T02:58:39","slug":"feds-probe-mention-markets-amid-white-house-kalshi-controversy-npr","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=43889","title":{"rendered":"Feds probe \u2018mention markets\u2019 amid White House Kalshi controversy : NPR"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><script>\r\n  atOptions = {\r\n    'key' : '644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6',\r\n    'format' : 'iframe',\r\n    'height' : 90,\r\n    'width' : 728,\r\n    'params' : {}\r\n  };\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script src=\"https:\/\/www.highperformanceformat.com\/644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"storytext\">\n<div id=\"resg-s1-138715\" class=\"bucketwrap image large\">\n<div class=\"imagewrap has-source-dimensions\" data-crop-type=\"\" style=\"&#10; 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on prediction market sites, where people bet millions of dollars on what a speaker may or may not utter. \" fetchpriority=\"high\"\/>\n        <\/picture>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"credit-caption\">\n<div class=\"caption-wrap\">\n<div class=\"caption\" aria-label=\"Image caption\">\n<p>\n                Federal regulators have opened an inquiry into so-called &#8220;mention markets&#8221; on prediction market sites, where people bet millions of dollars on what a speaker may or may not utter.<br \/>\n                <b class=\"credit\" aria-label=\"Image credit\"><\/p>\n<p>                    Erin Hooley\/AP Photo\/Erin Hooley\/AP<\/p>\n<p>                <\/b><br \/>\n                <b class=\"hide-caption\"><b>hide caption<\/b><\/b>\n            <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>            <b class=\"toggle-caption\"><br \/>\n              <svg class=\"icon icon--info\"><use href=\"#icon-info\"\/><\/svg><br \/>\n              <b>toggle caption<\/b><br \/>\n            <\/b>\n    <\/div>\n<p>    <span class=\"credit\" aria-label=\"Image credit\"><\/p>\n<p>        Erin Hooley\/AP Photo\/Erin Hooley\/AP<\/p>\n<p>    <\/span>\n<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Federal regulators have launched a review of so-called &#8220;mention markets&#8221; on prediction market sites, where bettors wager millions of dollars on the word choice of everyone from President Trump to soccer sportscasters, according to two people with direct knowledge of the probe who spoke to NPR on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.<\/p>\n<p>In response, Kalshi, the largest prediction market in the U.S., has removed all mention markets from its betting offerings for sports as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission pursues its inquiry, according to one of the people.<\/p>\n<aside id=\"ad-backstage-wrap\" class=\"ad-wrap backstage\" aria-label=\"advertisement\">\n<\/aside>\n<p>While most sports betting on the site involves the action of the game, this separate type of betting has grown increasingly popular, allowing people to put money down on whether a sportscaster will say things like &#8220;MVP,&#8221; &#8220;ankle&#8221; or &#8220;redshirt.&#8221; These markets have now been taken down &#8220;until further notice&#8221; and it is unclear when or if Kalshi will bring them back, the person said.<\/p>\n<div id=\"resnx-s1-5930689-100\" class=\"bucketwrap internallink insettwocolumn inset2col \">\n<div class=\"bucket img\">\n                  <a class=\"imagewrap\" id=\"featuredStackSquareImagenx-s1-5922530\" href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2026\/08\/07\/nx-s1-5922530\/patients-betting-kalshi-polymarket-clinical-trials\" data-metrics-ga4=\"{&quot;category&quot;:&quot;recirculation&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:&quot;story_recirculation_click&quot;,&quot;clickType&quot;:&quot;inset box&quot;,&quot;clickUrl&quot;:&quot;https:\\\/\\\/www.npr.org\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/07\\\/nx-s1-5922530\\\/patients-betting-kalshi-polymarket-clinical-trials&quot;}\"><picture><source srcset=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/2832x2832+712+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/85\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F41%2Fc6%2Fe7079d3a4f128467d00bfebea0dd%2Fgettyimages-463189932.jpg\" data-original=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/2832x2832+712+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/100\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F41%2Fc6%2Fe7079d3a4f128467d00bfebea0dd%2Fgettyimages-463189932.jpg\" data-template=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/2832x2832+712+0\/resize\/{width}\/quality\/{quality}\/format\/{format}\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F41%2Fc6%2Fe7079d3a4f128467d00bfebea0dd%2Fgettyimages-463189932.jpg\" data-format=\"webp\" class=\"img lazyOnLoad\" type=\"image\/webp\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/2832x2832+712+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/85\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F41%2Fc6%2Fe7079d3a4f128467d00bfebea0dd%2Fgettyimages-463189932.jpg\" data-original=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/2832x2832+712+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/100\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F41%2Fc6%2Fe7079d3a4f128467d00bfebea0dd%2Fgettyimages-463189932.jpg\" data-template=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/2832x2832+712+0\/resize\/{width}\/quality\/{quality}\/format\/{format}\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F41%2Fc6%2Fe7079d3a4f128467d00bfebea0dd%2Fgettyimages-463189932.jpg\" data-format=\"jpeg\" class=\"img lazyOnLoad\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"\/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/2832x2832+712+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/100\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F41%2Fc6%2Fe7079d3a4f128467d00bfebea0dd%2Fgettyimages-463189932.jpg\" data-template=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/2832x2832+712+0\/resize\/{width}\/quality\/{quality}\/format\/{format}\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F41%2Fc6%2Fe7079d3a4f128467d00bfebea0dd%2Fgettyimages-463189932.jpg\" data-format=\"jpeg\" class=\"img lazyOnLoad\" alt=\"Kalshi and Polymarket say allowing people to bet on the outcomes of clinical trials and FDA drug approvals provides valuable information about the drug development process. But researchers warn the bets could incentivize insider trading and interfere with the integrity of the process.\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/picture><\/a>         <\/p>\n<p><!-- END CLASS=\"BUCKETBLOCK\" -->\n      <\/div>\n<p><!-- END CLASS=\"BUCKET IMG\" -->\n   <\/div>\n<p><!-- END ID=\"RESNX-S1-5930689-100\" CLASS=\"BUCKETWRAP INTERNALLINK INSETTWOCOLUMN INSET2COL \" --><\/p>\n<p>Sports wagers account for more than 80% of the billions of dollars traded every week on the site, so taking down mention markets for sporting events will significantly cut into the category. Kalshi is still allowing wagers related to what people say at <a href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/markets\/kxmamdanimention\/what-will-zohran-mamdani-say-\/kxmamdanimention-26aug15\" target=\"_blank\">political events<\/a>, on <a href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/markets\/kxearningsmentionklar\/klarna-earnings-call\/kxearningsmentionklar-26aug18\" target=\"_blank\">earnings calls<\/a> and during <a href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/markets\/kxworldnewsmention\/world-news-mention\/kxworldnewsmention-26aug13\" target=\"_blank\">live television newscasts<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The stepped-up scrutiny from Washington on one of the most controversial areas of the booming prediction market sector comes after a high-profile incident involving betting on a speaker&#8217;s words reached the White House.<\/p>\n<p>Last month, regulators <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2026\/07\/16\/nx-s1-5896223\/kalshi-trump-white-house-teleprompter-operator-bet\" target=\"_blank\">revealed<\/a> that President Trump&#8217;s longtime teleprompter operator was using Kalshi to profit from correctly betting on what words the president would or would not utter during public appearances. Kalshi said its internal surveillance tools flagged the suspiciously well-timed bets and reported them to federal authorities.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;These mention markets are not popular across the political aisle,&#8221; said the other person with knowledge of the probe who requested anonymity to discuss internal deliberations at the CFTC. &#8220;They are potentially very easy to manipulate, so the CFTC is taking a hard look at whether some of them make sense.&#8221;<\/p>\n<aside id=\"ad-secondary-wrap\" class=\"ad-wrap secondary\" aria-label=\"advertisement\">\n<\/aside>\n<aside id=\"mid-story-recommendations-mount-piano\" class=\"mid-story-recommendations-mount-piano\" aria-label=\"recommended stories\"\/>\n<!-- END ID=\"MID-STORY-RECOMMENDATIONS-MOUNT-PIANO\" CLASS=\"MID-STORY-RECOMMENDATIONS-MOUNT-PIANO\" ARIA-LABEL=\"RECOMMENDED STORIES\" --><\/p>\n<p>Spokespeople at Kalshi and the CFTC declined to comment.<\/p>\n<div id=\"resnx-s1-5930689-101\" class=\"bucketwrap internallink insettwocolumn inset2col \">\n<div class=\"bucket img\">\n                  <a class=\"imagewrap\" id=\"featuredStackSquareImagenx-s1-5735893\" href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2026\/03\/06\/nx-s1-5735893\/iran-war-kalshi-polymarket-feud\" data-metrics-ga4=\"{&quot;category&quot;:&quot;recirculation&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:&quot;story_recirculation_click&quot;,&quot;clickType&quot;:&quot;inset box&quot;,&quot;clickUrl&quot;:&quot;https:\\\/\\\/www.npr.org\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/06\\\/nx-s1-5735893\\\/iran-war-kalshi-polymarket-feud&quot;}\"><picture><source srcset=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/1350x1350+525+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/85\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fe6%2Fd8%2F205357b84cc98ca864ef5c3dd682%2Fshaynecoplan-tarekmansour.jpg\" data-original=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/1350x1350+525+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/100\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fe6%2Fd8%2F205357b84cc98ca864ef5c3dd682%2Fshaynecoplan-tarekmansour.jpg\" data-template=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/1350x1350+525+0\/resize\/{width}\/quality\/{quality}\/format\/{format}\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fe6%2Fd8%2F205357b84cc98ca864ef5c3dd682%2Fshaynecoplan-tarekmansour.jpg\" data-format=\"webp\" class=\"img lazyOnLoad\" type=\"image\/webp\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/1350x1350+525+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/85\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fe6%2Fd8%2F205357b84cc98ca864ef5c3dd682%2Fshaynecoplan-tarekmansour.jpg\" data-original=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/1350x1350+525+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/100\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fe6%2Fd8%2F205357b84cc98ca864ef5c3dd682%2Fshaynecoplan-tarekmansour.jpg\" data-template=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/1350x1350+525+0\/resize\/{width}\/quality\/{quality}\/format\/{format}\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fe6%2Fd8%2F205357b84cc98ca864ef5c3dd682%2Fshaynecoplan-tarekmansour.jpg\" data-format=\"jpeg\" class=\"img lazyOnLoad\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"\/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/1350x1350+525+0\/resize\/100\/quality\/100\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fe6%2Fd8%2F205357b84cc98ca864ef5c3dd682%2Fshaynecoplan-tarekmansour.jpg\" data-template=\"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/1350x1350+525+0\/resize\/{width}\/quality\/{quality}\/format\/{format}\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fe6%2Fd8%2F205357b84cc98ca864ef5c3dd682%2Fshaynecoplan-tarekmansour.jpg\" data-format=\"jpeg\" class=\"img lazyOnLoad\" alt=\"Polymarket's Shayne Coplan (left) and Kalshi's Tarek Mansour are two 20-something billionaires who run the biggest prediction market sites.\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/picture><\/a>         <\/p>\n<p><!-- END CLASS=\"BUCKETBLOCK\" -->\n      <\/div>\n<p><!-- END CLASS=\"BUCKET IMG\" -->\n   <\/div>\n<p><!-- END ID=\"RESNX-S1-5930689-101\" CLASS=\"BUCKETWRAP INTERNALLINK INSETTWOCOLUMN INSET2COL \" --><\/p>\n<p>Polymarket, Kalshi&#8217;s main competitor, also offers mention markets, but only on its popular overseas site, which is not regulated by the CFTC. Polymarket&#8217;s smaller U.S. service does not list mention markets.<\/p>\n<p>The vast majority of prediction markets are &#8220;self-certified,&#8221; meaning the betting platform can launch a market as long as it files paperwork with federal officials saying the market is in accordance with rules for something known as a &#8220;swap,&#8221; a type of financial derivative.<\/p>\n<p>One of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cftc.gov\/IndustryOversight\/TradingOrganizations\/DCMs\/dcmhowto.html\" target=\"_blank\">those rules<\/a> requires that prediction market operators affirm that the market cannot be &#8220;readily susceptible to manipulation,&#8221; inviting bad actors or insider traders to profit by rigging a market.<\/p>\n<p>There is growing concern among Kalshi&#8217;s lawyers and federal regulators that betting on certain kinds of speaking events runs against this principle, since the very nature of some markets attracts possible manipulators, according to the second person familiar with the CFTC probe and a former Kalshi employee who spoke to NPR on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly for fear of retaliation.<\/p>\n<p>Inside Kalshi, employees have debated the usefulness of mention markets, with Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara especially championing them, according to the former Kalshi staffer.<\/p>\n<p>Lopes Lara views betting on the words people say at an awards show, a reality TV program or on an earnings call as a way to pull people into prediction markets from avenues other than sports. Sporting events are what most traders come to the site to wager on, yet the area has become incredibly litigious for the company, as it faces more than two dozen lawsuits from states and tribes over sports betting.<\/p>\n<p>Betting on the literal words coming out of someone&#8217;s mouth has led to preposterous outcomes.<\/p>\n<p>During the live broadcast of the World Cup final on Fox, traders on Kalshi were placing millions of dollars of <a href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/markets\/kxwcattend\/who-will-attend-world-cup\/kxwcattend-26jul20\" target=\"_blank\">bets over who would attend<\/a>.<\/p>\n<aside id=\"ad-third-wrap\" class=\"ad-wrap third\" aria-label=\"advertisement\">\n<\/aside>\n<p>When one of the Fox sportscasters mistook Matt Damon for Brad Pitt, several news organizations mistakenly reported that Pitt was there.<\/p>\n<p>Some of those news outlets were what Kalshi calls &#8220;source agencies,&#8221; or news organizations that help resolve its markets, or determine whether the event being bet on did or did not happen. After the Fox sportscaster misspoke, the Kalshi market settled on Pitt attending, strictly following its contract rules \u2014 even though the actor was not actually there.<\/p>\n<p>Kalshi <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/BobbyAllyn\/status\/2079372438924914774\" target=\"_blank\">data shows<\/a> that people who bet that Pitt was not there collectively lost $287,866.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<script async=\"async\" data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"https:\/\/pl30214220.effectivecpmnetwork.com\/9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<div id=\"container-9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\"><\/div>\r\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Federal regulators have opened an inquiry into so-called &#8220;mention markets&#8221; on prediction market sites, where people bet millions of dollars on what a speaker may or may not utter. Erin Hooley\/AP Photo\/Erin Hooley\/AP hide caption toggle caption Erin Hooley\/AP Photo\/Erin Hooley\/AP Federal regulators have launched a review of so-called &#8220;mention markets&#8221; on prediction market sites,&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":43890,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/npr.brightspotcdn.com\/dims3\/default\/strip\/false\/crop\/8377x4712+0+436\/resize\/1400\/quality\/85\/format\/jpeg\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F3a%2F97%2Fc48d45db41d681cff3ef1daf0ab5%2Fap26218067458235.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43889","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-hub"],"brizy_media":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43889","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=43889"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43889\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/43890"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=43889"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=43889"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=43889"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}