{"id":42255,"date":"2026-08-13T03:23:32","date_gmt":"2026-08-12T22:23:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=42255"},"modified":"2026-08-13T03:23:32","modified_gmt":"2026-08-12T22:23:32","slug":"why-house-dems-may-go-easy-on-one-of-gops-most-vulnerable-members","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=42255","title":{"rendered":"Why House Dems may go easy on one of GOP&#039;s most vulnerable members"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><script>\r\n  atOptions = {\r\n    'key' : '644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6',\r\n    'format' : 'iframe',\r\n    'height' : 90,\r\n    'width' : 728,\r\n    'params' : {}\r\n  };\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script src=\"https:\/\/www.highperformanceformat.com\/644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.axios.com\/HuPL4HhEqly0i6iIEN6q2F5YFN8=\/0x0:4000x2250\/1366x768\/2026\/08\/07\/1786109306239.jpeg\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Rep. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/07\/31\/house-republicans-midterms-mike-lawler-new-york\" target=\"_blank\">Mike Lawler<\/a>&#8216;s (R-N.Y.) fight to hold on to a key battleground seat is getting a behind-the-scenes assist \u2014 for now, at least \u2014  from an unlikely group: House Democrats.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Why it matters:<\/strong> Kamala Harris carried Lawler&#8217;s district in 2024, but some Democrats are privately wary of spending the small fortune it would take to oust one of the GOP&#8217;s most bipartisan \u2014 and electorally savvy \u2014 members. <\/p>\n<hr>\n<ul>\n<li>&#8220;If you&#8217;re going to have a Republican, it&#8217;s the kind of Republican we want in the Congress,&#8221; a Democratic source told Axios of Lawler, also noting that the New York City area is the nation&#8217;s most expensive media market.<\/li>\n<li>A senior House Democrat told Axios: &#8220;I don&#8217;t think Lawler is beatable.&#8221;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>State of play: <\/strong>Republicans are outspending Democrats more than 40 to 1 on current and future ad reservations in New York&#8217;s 17th District, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The House Republican leadership\u2013aligned super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund has a whopping $6.7 million reserved in the district.<\/li>\n<li>That is on top of $2.8 million from the Lawler campaign and $2.1 million from outside GOP group Americans for Open Government.<\/li>\n<li>Democratic leadership\u2013aligned nonprofit House Majority Forward is the only group with ad reservations in the district, at just $270,000 reserved.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Yes, but: <\/strong>Democrats insist their lack of ad reservations is simply a result of the New York media market being so costly that there is no value in reserving TV time early there compared with states like Iowa.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>&#8220;NY-17 is one of the best flip opportunities on the map, and Mike Lawler is down in polling \u2014 HMP is going to do whatever it takes to flip this seat,&#8221; CJ Warnke, a spokesperson for the HMF&#8217;s political arm, House Majority PAC, told Axios.<\/li>\n<li>Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Riya Vashi pointed to an alleged GOP shell PAC <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/06\/15\/republican-primary-meddling-democrats-midterms-ny\" target=\"_blank\">spending $1.5 million<\/a> in a failed attempt to stop Cait Conley from becoming the Democratic nominee as evidence they are &#8220;clearly scared.&#8221;<\/li>\n<li>Vashi noted that the DCCC put Conley, a U.S. Army veteran, on its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/08\/11\/max-miller-ohio-brian-poindexter-democrats-2026\" target=\"_blank\">coveted &#8220;Red to Blue&#8221; list<\/a> and said the group will &#8220;continue our efforts to fire Mike Lawler and elect Cait every day leading up to November.&#8221;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Zoom out:<\/strong> Lawler&#8217;s Hudson Valley district has long been viewed as one of Democrats&#8217; best pickup opportunities \u2014 and one of the races most likely to decide control of the House.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to reclaim the majority.<\/li>\n<li>Harris carried Lawler&#8217;s district by half a percentage point in 2024, making it the most Democratic-leaning seat in which a House Republican is running for reelection.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Between the lines: <\/strong>One estimate shared with Axios found that the money needed to compete seriously in NY-17 could instead fund television advertising across 11 toss-up House districts.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The only other truly vulnerable GOP incumbent in the NYC media market besides Lawler is Rep. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/06\/30\/tom-kean-return-congress-absence\" target=\"_blank\">Tom Kean Jr.<\/a> (R-N.J.), and Democrats wouldn&#8217;t get much bang for their buck spending there.<\/li>\n<li>Said the Democratic source: &#8220;If you can pick up five people for the cost of one person, wouldn&#8217;t you just go after the five people?&#8221;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>The intrigue:<\/strong> A former House Republican familiar with the dynamic between Lawler and Democratic leadership expressed skepticism that Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) will ultimately lay off Lawler through Election Day. <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The tensions between Lawler and Jeffries spilled into the open last year when Lawler <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/liz_elkind\/status\/1975999312715727307\" target=\"_blank\">waited outside<\/a> the Democratic leader&#8217;s press conference and the two engaged in a shouting match over the ongoing government shutdown.<\/li>\n<li>The DCCC and House Majority PAC will &#8220;absolutely&#8221; spend in the district because &#8220;Schumer and Jeffries hate him,&#8221; the former lawmaker predicted, adding that Lawler &#8220;will still win.&#8221;<\/li>\n<li>A second senior House Democrat, asked if Jeffries hates Lawler, told Axios: &#8220;Correct.&#8221;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>The bottom line:<\/strong> Lawler is one of the Republicans with the most Democratic fans, but he&#8217;s still a Republican standing between them and the House majority. <\/p>\n<script async=\"async\" data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"https:\/\/pl30214220.effectivecpmnetwork.com\/9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<div id=\"container-9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\"><\/div>\r\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rep. Mike Lawler&#8216;s (R-N.Y.) fight to hold on to a key battleground seat is getting a behind-the-scenes assist \u2014 for now, at least \u2014 from an unlikely group: House Democrats. Why it matters: Kamala Harris carried Lawler&#8217;s district in 2024, but some Democrats are privately wary of spending the small fortune it would take to&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":42256,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.axios.com\/HuPL4HhEqly0i6iIEN6q2F5YFN8=\/0x0:4000x2250\/1366x768\/2026\/08\/07\/1786109306239.jpeg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-42255","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-political-news"],"brizy_media":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42255","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=42255"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42255\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/42256"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=42255"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=42255"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=42255"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}