{"id":41374,"date":"2026-08-12T18:30:31","date_gmt":"2026-08-12T13:30:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=41374"},"modified":"2026-08-12T18:30:31","modified_gmt":"2026-08-12T13:30:31","slug":"diesel-desperation-is-mounting-globally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=41374","title":{"rendered":"Diesel desperation is mounting globally"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><script>\r\n  atOptions = {\r\n    'key' : '644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6',\r\n    'format' : 'iframe',\r\n    'height' : 90,\r\n    'width' : 728,\r\n    'params' : {}\r\n  };\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script src=\"https:\/\/www.highperformanceformat.com\/644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.axios.com\/b-zHgEL_8VMxEFf3NvxFYjHn2Zg=\/1366x768\/smart\/2022\/03\/17\/221231-1647555151137.jpg\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The state of the global diesel market is getting even more precarious as the Russia-Ukraine war and the Iran crisis squeeze supply from multiple angles.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Why it matters: <\/strong>Diesel prices ripple through economies here and abroad, affecting shipping costs, construction and plenty in between.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<ul>\n<li>The average U.S. price is up 44 cents over the last month to $5.32 per gallon, compared to $3.71 a year ago, per AAA.<\/li>\n<li>However, during the Iran crisis, it hasn&#8217;t hit the all-time high of $5.82 per gallon that AAA recorded in mid-June of 2022.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Driving the news:<\/strong> A new S&amp;P Global Energy analysis unpacks the ingredients behind the &#8220;big squeeze&#8221; in global refined product markets.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>S&amp;P estimates that refineries worldwide processed 7.5 million barrels per day less crude last month than the same period in 2025.<\/li>\n<li>A separate International Energy Agency analysis <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/oil-market-report-august-2026\" target=\"_blank\">out this morning<\/a> also tracks an extremely steep drop in how much crude that refineries are processing.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>Data: AAA; Chart: Ben Geman\/Axios<\/div>\n<p><strong>State of play:<\/strong> Renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz are further restricting supply after a period of optimism about normalizing flows.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Middle East refineries are processing much less as capacity remains &#8220;physically impaired, logistically stranded, or operationally unable to restart with confidence,&#8221; S&amp;P states.<\/li>\n<li>Russia&#8217;s restrictions on diesel exports following Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries have removed another 10% of seaborne supplies from the market, and China&#8217;s refinery activity remains &#8220;subdued.&#8221;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>By the numbers: <\/strong>Diesel exports from Russia, the Middle East and Asia in July were 1.3 million barrels per day lower year-over-year, &#8220;equivalent to about 20% of global seaborne trade,&#8221; IEA&#8217;s monthly report this morning states.<\/p>\n<p><strong>&#8220;Diesel is the tightest market right now,&#8221;<\/strong> Amrita Sen, founder of market intelligence firm Energy Aspects, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/videos\/2026-08-10\/diesel-crunch-looms-ahead-of-winter-energy-aspects-says-video\" target=\"_blank\">tells Bloomberg TV.<\/a> <\/p>\n<p><strong>Zoom in:<\/strong> In the U.S., the Energy Department&#8217;s stats and analysis arm yesterday <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/outlooks\/steo\/pdf\/compare.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">revised<\/a> its diesel price estimates upward.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Energy Information Administration sees retail prices averaging $4.85 per gallon in 2026, compared to $4.61 in last month&#8217;s outlook. <\/li>\n<li>It also slightly raised its 2027 forecast average to $4.07, up from $4.02. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>The big picture: <\/strong>In the U.S., fuel accounts for roughly 20-25% of trucking companies&#8217; operating costs, according to the American Trucking Associations, a major trade group.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What we&#8217;re watching:<\/strong> The U.S. has been exporting <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/newsletters\/axios-future-of-energy-61365020-90f6-11f1-96cf-199cc5a9dbf3.html#story3\" target=\"_blank\">growing amounts<\/a> of diesel to the thirsty global market, but S&amp;P points out that U.S. refineries are running at 96% of capacity.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>With the heart of hurricane season and traditional fall maintenance looming, the market&#8217;s remaining buffers are very thin, the research and consulting firm notes.<\/li>\n<li>And diesel and similar refinery products are used for heating in many countries. &#8220;I think we are underestimating just how tight diesel can be this winter,&#8221; said Sen.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>The bottom line: <\/strong>&#8220;The situation is not going away anytime soon and could very well get more expensive,&#8221; Mizuho Securities analyst Robert Yawger said in a note.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>&#8220;Ukrainian drone production has been increasing exponentially, with Russian energy infrastructure a prime target,&#8221; he writes.<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;Unless there are big breakthroughs in the peace process around both conflicts, large amounts of diesel will remain shut in.&#8221;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<script async=\"async\" data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"https:\/\/pl30214220.effectivecpmnetwork.com\/9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<div id=\"container-9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\"><\/div>\r\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The state of the global diesel market is getting even more precarious as the Russia-Ukraine war and the Iran crisis squeeze supply from multiple angles. Why it matters: Diesel prices ripple through economies here and abroad, affecting shipping costs, construction and plenty in between. The average U.S. price is up 44 cents over the last&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":41375,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.axios.com\/b-zHgEL_8VMxEFf3NvxFYjHn2Zg=\/1366x768\/smart\/2022\/03\/17\/221231-1647555151137.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41374","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-political-news"],"brizy_media":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41374","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=41374"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41374\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/41375"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=41374"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=41374"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=41374"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}