{"id":39727,"date":"2026-08-12T01:25:46","date_gmt":"2026-08-11T20:25:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=39727"},"modified":"2026-08-12T01:25:46","modified_gmt":"2026-08-11T20:25:46","slug":"just-in-nate-silver-reveals-his-updated-midterm-election-forecast-rates-texas-as-lean-d","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=39727","title":{"rendered":"JUST IN: Nate Silver Reveals His Updated Midterm Election Forecast \u2014 Rates Texas as LEAN D"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><script>\r\n  atOptions = {\r\n    'key' : '644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6',\r\n    'format' : 'iframe',\r\n    'height' : 90,\r\n    'width' : 728,\r\n    'params' : {}\r\n  };\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script src=\"https:\/\/www.highperformanceformat.com\/644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_5583018\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-5583018\" class=\"wp-image-5583018 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/am14.mediaite.com\/med\/cnt\/uploads\/2024\/11\/nate-silver.jpg\" alt=\"Nate Silver\" width=\"1024\" height=\"749\" \/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-5583018\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">AP Photo\/Nam Y. Huh, File<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Elections prognosticator <strong>Nate Silver<\/strong> released his forecast model for the November midterms on Tuesday and made the bold prediction the Texas Senate seat would flip blue.<\/p>\n<p>The incumbent Republican, Sen. <strong>John Cornyn<\/strong> (R-TX), lost a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaite.com\/online\/cornyn-sounds-off-on-save-act-latest-texas-polling-im-not-gonna-say-i-told-you-so-but\/\">viciously contentious<\/a> primary to Texas Attorney General <strong>Ken Paxton<\/strong>, who <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaite.com\/politics\/trump-says-he-hasnt-decided-yet-to-endorse-cornyn-or-paxton-one-day-before-early-voting\/\">scored<\/a> President <strong>Donald Trump&#8217;s<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaite.com\/media\/news\/breaking-trump-endorses-ken-paxton-in-texas-gop-primary\/\">endorsement<\/a> but is\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaite.com\/politics\/top-senate-republican-warns-democrats-could-flip-texas-seat-if-ken-paxton-is-the-gop-nominee\/\">widely viewed<\/a> as a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaite.com\/media\/tv\/karl-rove-absolutely-nukes-gop-candidate-who-could-turn-texas-blue\/\">weaker candidate<\/a>\u00a0in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaite.com\/media\/tv\/cnn-previews-brutal-gop-senate-primary-in-texas-democrats-do-have-a-true-shot-if-ken-paxton-wins\/\">general election<\/a> due to a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaite.com\/politics\/karl-rove-declares-democrat-james-talarico-could-pull-off-wild-upset-in-texas\/\">series<\/a> of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kut.org\/politics\/2025-07-10\/state-sen-angela-paxton-files-for-divorce-from-texas-attorney-general-ken-paxton\">scandals<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.texasscorecard.co\/explosive-lawsuit-alleges-witness-tampering-in-paxton-impeachment\/\">lawsuits<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.texastribune.org\/2023\/09\/16\/ken-paxton-acquitted-impeachment-texas-attorney-general\/\">controversies<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 not to mention a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaite.com\/politics\/trial-for-ken-paxtons-messy-divorce-is-scheduled-to-start-in-a-few-weeks\/\">messy and contentious divorce<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The Democratic nominee, State Rep. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaite.com\/media\/tv\/awkward-cbs-news-covers-cbss-stephen-colbert-bashing-cbs-news-over-talarico-interview-fracas\/\"><strong>James Talarico<\/strong><\/a> (D), has had a slight lead in a series of recent polls. Past Democrats running statewide in the Lone Star State like former Rep. <strong>Beto O&#8217;Rourke<\/strong> (D-TX) have polled better than they performed on Election Day but numerous commentators have noted <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaite.com\/online\/cornyn-sounds-off-on-save-act-latest-texas-polling-im-not-gonna-say-i-told-you-so-but\/\">Paxton&#8217;s flaws<\/a> as a candidate and the downward drag of Trump and the GOP&#8217;s poor polling on key issues like immigration and the economy to predict that Talarico may in fact have a chance.<\/p>\n<p>Add Silver to the list of those saying the Lone Star State could in fact flip blue.<\/p>\n<p>In his <a href=\"https:\/\/www.natesilver.net\/p\/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2026 midterm forecast model<\/a> &#8212; which he has bequeathed the moniker &#8220;FLIPR&#8221; &#8212; Silver rates Texas as &#8220;Lean D.&#8221;<\/p>\n<div class=\"embed_container\" id=\"90154d4fdae14750956400bff065c175\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Our midterm election forecast just dropped! We&#039;ve even given it a name: FLIPR.<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/17.0.2\/72x72\/1f42c.png\" alt=\"\ud83d\udc2c\" class=\"wp-smiley\" style=\"height: 1em;max-height: 1em\" \/> You might want to bookmark the model homepage, as we&#039;ll be updating it nearly every day. There are also (free) polling averages with all the key races.<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/0qDkWgUvFh\">https:\/\/t.co\/0qDkWgUvFh<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/NateSilver538\/status\/2087233586902503846?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 11, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<p>In his <a href=\"https:\/\/www.natesilver.net\/p\/everything-is-breaking-democrats-way\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">write up<\/a>, Silver acknowledged &#8220;Democrats certainly have <em>plenty<\/em> of pr0blems,&#8221; including a &#8220;fundraising crisis&#8221; and internecine battles between the party&#8217;s establishment and the more progressive wing of the party, but still viewed Talarico&#8217;s campaign as one of his top picks to flip blue, rating it as a 63% chance of pickup.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_5750219\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-5750219\" class=\"wp-image-5750219 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/am14.mediaite.com\/med\/cnt\/uploads\/2026\/08\/HPddawZXsAA34S-1200x865.jpeg\" alt=\"Nate Silver 2026 forecast map\" width=\"1200\" height=\"865\" \/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-5750219\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Screenshot via natesilver.net.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Silver ranked only two other states&#8217; chances of flipping blue higher than Texas, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaite.com\/politics\/fox-news-poll-shows-democrat-has-9-point-lead-in-race-to-replace-retiring-gop-senator-in-north-carolina\/\">North Carolina<\/a>, where former Gov. <strong>Roy Cooper<\/strong> (D) is running against former chair of the RNC and North Carolina GOP <strong>Michael Whatley<\/strong> to follow retiring Sen. <strong>Thom Tillis<\/strong> (R-NC), and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaite.com\/politics\/platners-replacement-already-leads-susan-collins-in-critical-maine-senate-race\/\">Maine<\/a>, where <strong>Troy Jackson<\/strong> is challenging Sen. <strong>Susan Collins<\/strong> (R-ME).<\/p>\n<p>Cooper had a whopping 90% chance of defeating Whatley, according to Silver&#8217;s prediction; Jackson was rated with a 69% chance of replacing Collins.<\/p>\n<p>The post <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaite.com\/politics\/just-in-nate-silver-reveals-his-updated-midterm-election-forecast-rates-texas-as-lean-d\/\">JUST IN: Nate Silver Reveals His Updated Midterm Election Forecast \u2014 Rates Texas as LEAN D<\/a> first appeared on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaite.com\">Mediaite<\/a>.<\/p>\n<script async=\"async\" data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"https:\/\/pl30214220.effectivecpmnetwork.com\/9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<div id=\"container-9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\"><\/div>\r\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AP Photo\/Nam Y. Huh, File Elections prognosticator Nate Silver released his forecast model for the November midterms on Tuesday and made the bold prediction the Texas Senate seat would flip blue. The incumbent Republican, Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), lost a viciously contentious primary to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who scored President Donald Trump&#8217;s endorsement&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":39728,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/am14.mediaite.com\/med\/cnt\/uploads\/2024\/11\/nate-silver.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39727","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-newsweek-trending"],"brizy_media":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39727","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=39727"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39727\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/39728"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=39727"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=39727"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=39727"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}