{"id":37233,"date":"2026-08-10T21:20:40","date_gmt":"2026-08-10T16:20:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=37233"},"modified":"2026-08-10T21:20:40","modified_gmt":"2026-08-10T16:20:40","slug":"el-nino-could-bring-california-its-highest-sea-levels-ever-recorded","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=37233","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o could bring California its highest sea levels ever recorded"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><script>\r\n  atOptions = {\r\n    'key' : '644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6',\r\n    'format' : 'iframe',\r\n    'height' : 90,\r\n    'width' : 728,\r\n    'params' : {}\r\n  };\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script src=\"https:\/\/www.highperformanceformat.com\/644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div data-element=\"story-body\" data-subscriber-content=\"\">\n<p>A strengthening El Ni\u00f1o could bring the highest sea levels ever recorded to the California coast this year, raising the risk of widespread and damaging flooding. <\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s the latest effect forecast for  what\u2019s expected to be an historically strong event, one forecasters warn could also lash Southern California with powerful rain and broil both land and sea with punishing heat waves.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019re expecting likely the highest sea levels ever recorded on the California coast associated with this event,\u201d said Mark Merrifield, director of the UC San Diego Scripps Institution of Oceanography\u2019s Center for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation. <\/p>\n<p>During a recent online town hall, Merrifield presented a NASA <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/svs.gsfc.nasa.gov\/31399\/\" target=\"_blank\">satellite image<\/a> showing sea levels already more than half a foot higher in the eastern Pacific Ocean compared to the reference state, and said by this fall and winter, \u201cwe should be seeing sea levels far above the average seasonal cycle.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>According to NASA, El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s warmer ocean water displaces colder water close to the sea surface. Warmer water <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/sealevel.nasa.gov\/understanding-sea-level\/global-sea-level\/thermal-expansion\/\" target=\"_blank\">causes<\/a> a rise in the sea surface height because water expands as temperature rises. <\/p>\n<div class=\"enhancement\" data-click=\"enhancement\" data-align-center=\"\">\n<figure class=\"figure m-0\"> <picture><source type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/ea4408a\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/713x456+0+0\/resize\/320x205!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Faa%2Feb%2F885c561e49b6b97f6eb8c87d546e%2Fscreenshot-2026-08-07-at-4-32-23-pm.png 320w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/1a3eba2\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/713x456+0+0\/resize\/568x363!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Faa%2Feb%2F885c561e49b6b97f6eb8c87d546e%2Fscreenshot-2026-08-07-at-4-32-23-pm.png 568w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/902af73\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/713x456+0+0\/resize\/768x491!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Faa%2Feb%2F885c561e49b6b97f6eb8c87d546e%2Fscreenshot-2026-08-07-at-4-32-23-pm.png 768w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/4ad16e4\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/713x456+0+0\/resize\/1024x655!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Faa%2Feb%2F885c561e49b6b97f6eb8c87d546e%2Fscreenshot-2026-08-07-at-4-32-23-pm.png 1024w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/7cd3768\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/713x456+0+0\/resize\/1200x767!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Faa%2Feb%2F885c561e49b6b97f6eb8c87d546e%2Fscreenshot-2026-08-07-at-4-32-23-pm.png 1200w\" sizes=\"100vw\"\/><img class=\"image\" alt=\"El Ni\u00f1o is already causing sea levels to rise in the eastern Pacific\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/a6571b3\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/713x456+0+0\/resize\/320x205!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Faa%2Feb%2F885c561e49b6b97f6eb8c87d546e%2Fscreenshot-2026-08-07-at-4-32-23-pm.png 320w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/3babe1a\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/713x456+0+0\/resize\/568x363!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Faa%2Feb%2F885c561e49b6b97f6eb8c87d546e%2Fscreenshot-2026-08-07-at-4-32-23-pm.png 568w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/cac50af\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/713x456+0+0\/resize\/768x491!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Faa%2Feb%2F885c561e49b6b97f6eb8c87d546e%2Fscreenshot-2026-08-07-at-4-32-23-pm.png 768w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/f23db22\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/713x456+0+0\/resize\/1024x655!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Faa%2Feb%2F885c561e49b6b97f6eb8c87d546e%2Fscreenshot-2026-08-07-at-4-32-23-pm.png 1024w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/7233e90\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/713x456+0+0\/resize\/1200x767!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Faa%2Feb%2F885c561e49b6b97f6eb8c87d546e%2Fscreenshot-2026-08-07-at-4-32-23-pm.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, 100vw\" width=\"1200\" height=\"767\" src=\"https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/7233e90\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/713x456+0+0\/resize\/1200x767!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Faa%2Feb%2F885c561e49b6b97f6eb8c87d546e%2Fscreenshot-2026-08-07-at-4-32-23-pm.png\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\"\/>   <\/picture>\n<div class=\"figure-content\">\n<p>El Ni\u00f1o already is causing sea levels to rise in the eastern Pacific. <\/p>\n<p>(NASA image via Mark Merrifield)<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n<p>Data collected by scientists over the years also have shown how El Ni\u00f1os contribute to \u201cenormously strong\u201d waves, which can cause beaches to \u201cerode and to narrow,\u201d Merrifield said. \u201cIt\u2019s well documented that during El Ni\u00f1o events, beaches across the entire state tend to move landward by about 30 meters [98 feet] or so.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>With less of a coastal buffer, any large waves that come in \u201cwill have even greater impact on the shoreline, with more likelihood of flooding and undercutting of cliffs,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThat combination \u2014 high waves, high sea levels, high tides, and &#8230; high rainfall will contribute to considerable coastal flooding, intrusion of salt water into the groundwater, and coastal erosion,\u201d Merrifield said. \u201cFlooding &#8230; along the Southern California coast is likely to be a major issue for the winter season.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>This has proven true in recent editions of the climate pattern. In 2023-24, significant flooding struck portions of <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/environment\/story\/2024-01-25\/how-perfect-storms-dumped-rain-on-ventura-and-san-diego\">Ventura, Los Angeles and San Diego<\/a> counties. During one memorable moment, a powerful wave crashed over a sea wall in Ventura, injuring eight people. <\/p>\n<div class=\"enhancement\" data-click=\"enhancement\" data-align-center=\"\">\n<div class=\"video-enhancement\" data-video-disable-history=\"\">\n<div class=\"video-enhancement-player\">    <gn-video-player class=\"gvp  block relative  w-full bg-cms-color-brand-background lg:z-10\" data-video-player=\"\" data-video-id=\"0000018c-b658-d202-a38c-bf7c03cd0000\" data-video-platform=\"gvp\" data-video-title=\"Sneaker wave in Ventura\" data-internal-video-id=\"0000018c-b657-d82f-a79d-f7ffd8c30000\" data-player-id=\"f0ba0e9154d7141d9ad93b8c5ec7f220d\" data-autoplay-threshold=\"50\" data-miniplayer=\"\" data-lazy-offset=\"1.0\" data-ad-slot-name=\"\/21787098806\/web.latimes\/california\/video\" data-ad-provider=\"ima\" data-ima-sdk-url=\"https:\/\/imasdk.googleapis.com\/js\/sdkloader\/ima3.js\" data-ima-ad-tag-url=\"https:\/\/pubads.g.doubleclick.net\/gampad\/ads?sz=640x480&amp;gdfp_req=1&amp;env=vp&amp;output=vast&amp;unviewed_position_start=1&amp;cmsid=2652439&amp;ad_rule=0&amp;plcmt=1&amp;vid=0000018c-b658-d202-a38c-bf7c03cd0000\"> <\/p>\n<div class=\"container\">\n<div data-vjs-player=\"\" class=\"video-js  vjs-16-9  skin bg-transparent\"> <video playsinline=\"playsinline\" preload=\"none\" title=\"Sneaker wave in Ventura\" data-video-id=\"0000018c-b658-d202-a38c-bf7c03cd0000\"><source src=\"https:\/\/ca-times-cdn.platform.californiatimes.com\/e4\/6d\/e7fdf9ed4ad1841951f8b7b2672b\/apple-hls\/sneaker-wave.m3u8\" type=\"application\/x-mpegURL\"\/><source src=\"https:\/\/ca-times-cdn.platform.californiatimes.com\/e4\/6d\/e7fdf9ed4ad1841951f8b7b2672b\/apple-hls\/sneaker-wave-system-avc-16x9-1080p-29-97fps-8500kbps.m3u8\" type=\"application\/x-mpegURL\"\/><source src=\"https:\/\/ca-times-cdn.platform.californiatimes.com\/e4\/6d\/e7fdf9ed4ad1841951f8b7b2672b\/apple-hls\/sneaker-wave-system-avc-16x9-360p-29-97fps-600kbps.m3u8\" type=\"application\/x-mpegURL\"\/><source src=\"https:\/\/ca-times-cdn.platform.californiatimes.com\/e4\/6d\/e7fdf9ed4ad1841951f8b7b2672b\/apple-hls\/sneaker-wave-system-avc-16x9-540p-29-97fps-3500kbps.m3u8\" type=\"application\/x-mpegURL\"\/><source src=\"https:\/\/ca-times-cdn.platform.californiatimes.com\/e4\/6d\/e7fdf9ed4ad1841951f8b7b2672b\/apple-hls\/sneaker-wave-system-avc-16x9-720p-29-97fps-5000kbps.m3u8\" type=\"application\/x-mpegURL\"\/><source src=\"https:\/\/ca-times-cdn.platform.californiatimes.com\/e4\/6d\/e7fdf9ed4ad1841951f8b7b2672b\/file-group\/sneaker-wave-system-generic-hd-mp4-avc-aac-16x9-1280x720p-24hz-4-5mbps.mp4\" type=\"video\/mp4\"\/><\/video>   <\/p>\n<div class=\"gvp-overlay gvp-layer\">\n<div class=\"gvp-overlay-poster\"><picture><source type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/e49478c\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/2136x1203+0+74\/resize\/110x62!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F4b%2F76%2F6f8c6e784a748e6025004cf87571%2Fla-me-snaeker-wave-thumb.jpg 110w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/d412d2f\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/2136x1203+0+74\/resize\/180x101!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F4b%2F76%2F6f8c6e784a748e6025004cf87571%2Fla-me-snaeker-wave-thumb.jpg 180w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/41f5eb3\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/2136x1203+0+74\/resize\/320x180!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F4b%2F76%2F6f8c6e784a748e6025004cf87571%2Fla-me-snaeker-wave-thumb.jpg 320w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/a535a4c\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/2136x1203+0+74\/resize\/568x320!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F4b%2F76%2F6f8c6e784a748e6025004cf87571%2Fla-me-snaeker-wave-thumb.jpg 568w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/1f9ab52\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/2136x1203+0+74\/resize\/768x432!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F4b%2F76%2F6f8c6e784a748e6025004cf87571%2Fla-me-snaeker-wave-thumb.jpg 768w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/c9fbb24\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/2136x1203+0+74\/resize\/840x473!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F4b%2F76%2F6f8c6e784a748e6025004cf87571%2Fla-me-snaeker-wave-thumb.jpg 840w\" sizes=\"100vw\"\/><img class=\"image\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/6dcc640\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/2136x1203+0+74\/resize\/110x62!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F4b%2F76%2F6f8c6e784a748e6025004cf87571%2Fla-me-snaeker-wave-thumb.jpg 110w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/d308a58\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/2136x1203+0+74\/resize\/180x101!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F4b%2F76%2F6f8c6e784a748e6025004cf87571%2Fla-me-snaeker-wave-thumb.jpg 180w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/41c9f5c\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/2136x1203+0+74\/resize\/320x180!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F4b%2F76%2F6f8c6e784a748e6025004cf87571%2Fla-me-snaeker-wave-thumb.jpg 320w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/f665ec8\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/2136x1203+0+74\/resize\/568x320!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F4b%2F76%2F6f8c6e784a748e6025004cf87571%2Fla-me-snaeker-wave-thumb.jpg 568w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/03acceb\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/2136x1203+0+74\/resize\/768x432!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F4b%2F76%2F6f8c6e784a748e6025004cf87571%2Fla-me-snaeker-wave-thumb.jpg 768w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/51dc894\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/2136x1203+0+74\/resize\/840x473!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F4b%2F76%2F6f8c6e784a748e6025004cf87571%2Fla-me-snaeker-wave-thumb.jpg 840w\" sizes=\"auto, 100vw\" width=\"840\" height=\"473\" src=\"https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/51dc894\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/2136x1203+0+74\/resize\/840x473!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F4b%2F76%2F6f8c6e784a748e6025004cf87571%2Fla-me-snaeker-wave-thumb.jpg\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\"\/>   <\/picture> <\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p> <\/gn-video-player>  <\/div>\n<p class=\"video-enhancement-title\">A sneaker wave hits the beach at the end of Seward Avenue in Ventura on Dec. 28, 2023. (Ventura Police Department and the city of Ventura)<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>\u201cUsually the entire California coast sees these higher waves as the storm track is perturbed by the El Ni\u00f1o,\u201d Merrifield said during the town hall, which was hosted by state Sen. Mike McGuire, a Democrat representing the North Coast.<\/p>\n<p>Any El Ni\u00f1o-influenced rise in sea level would only add to a wider trend influenced by human-caused climate change. In the San Francisco Bay Area, where sea levels have risen over the last century, notable peaks have been observed during the El Ni\u00f1o seasons of 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2023-24, according to Merrifield. <\/p>\n<p>The average sea level at La Jolla Pier was significantly <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/live\/mmmXUkRp6-g?si=KwJSLTHVN0Nkynz-&amp;t=977\" target=\"_blank\">above<\/a> average during the last two \u201cvery strong\u201d El Ni\u00f1os, in 1997-98 and 2015-16, according to data shared by Merrifield. And this year\u2019s El Ni\u00f1o could be similarly powerful in a matter of months.<\/p>\n<div class=\"enhancement\" data-click=\"enhancement\" data-align-center=\"\">\n<figure class=\"figure m-0\"> <picture><source type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/2d12cb7\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/718x580+0+0\/resize\/320x258!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fc8%2F19%2F1252153144a3912476087bcc8bcb%2Fscreenshot-2026-08-07-at-4-46-48-pm.png 320w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/6116ccb\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/718x580+0+0\/resize\/568x459!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fc8%2F19%2F1252153144a3912476087bcc8bcb%2Fscreenshot-2026-08-07-at-4-46-48-pm.png 568w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/cfe2514\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/718x580+0+0\/resize\/768x620!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fc8%2F19%2F1252153144a3912476087bcc8bcb%2Fscreenshot-2026-08-07-at-4-46-48-pm.png 768w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/e0ab473\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/718x580+0+0\/resize\/1024x827!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fc8%2F19%2F1252153144a3912476087bcc8bcb%2Fscreenshot-2026-08-07-at-4-46-48-pm.png 1024w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/d3c844e\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/718x580+0+0\/resize\/1200x969!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fc8%2F19%2F1252153144a3912476087bcc8bcb%2Fscreenshot-2026-08-07-at-4-46-48-pm.png 1200w\" sizes=\"100vw\"\/><img class=\"image\" alt=\"Rise\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/4490eed\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/718x580+0+0\/resize\/320x258!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fc8%2F19%2F1252153144a3912476087bcc8bcb%2Fscreenshot-2026-08-07-at-4-46-48-pm.png 320w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/1413101\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/718x580+0+0\/resize\/568x459!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fc8%2F19%2F1252153144a3912476087bcc8bcb%2Fscreenshot-2026-08-07-at-4-46-48-pm.png 568w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/acd5048\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/718x580+0+0\/resize\/768x620!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fc8%2F19%2F1252153144a3912476087bcc8bcb%2Fscreenshot-2026-08-07-at-4-46-48-pm.png 768w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/9836c90\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/718x580+0+0\/resize\/1024x827!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fc8%2F19%2F1252153144a3912476087bcc8bcb%2Fscreenshot-2026-08-07-at-4-46-48-pm.png 1024w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/b9dd188\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/718x580+0+0\/resize\/1200x969!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fc8%2F19%2F1252153144a3912476087bcc8bcb%2Fscreenshot-2026-08-07-at-4-46-48-pm.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, 100vw\" width=\"1200\" height=\"969\" src=\"https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/b9dd188\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/718x580+0+0\/resize\/1200x969!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fc8%2F19%2F1252153144a3912476087bcc8bcb%2Fscreenshot-2026-08-07-at-4-46-48-pm.png\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\"\/>   <\/picture>\n<div class=\"figure-content\">\n<p>A slide shows how sea levels have risen in San Francisco Bay over the last century.<\/p>\n<p>(Mark Merrifield \/ Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego)<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n<p>Sea level rise is expected to increase in all sorts of areas, from the San Francisco Bay to San Diego, Merrifield said, and impact the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cHistorically, these kind of events have led to, in San Francisco, anywhere from half a foot to a foot of anomalously high sea level,\u201d Merrifield said. \u201cThat typically starts to peak up in November, December.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>El Ni\u00f1o is a climate pattern characterized by warmer ocean waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, coupled with changing atmospheric conditions, in which  the typical east-to-west trade winds weaken or even reverse. <\/p>\n<p>That shift can train a veritable fire hose of tropical moisture at Southern California, potentially leading to significant rainfall across the region \u2014 albeit at the cost of drier-than-usual conditions elsewhere. <\/p>\n<div class=\"enhancement\" data-click=\"enhancement\" data-align-center=\"\">\n<figure class=\"figure m-0\"> <picture><source type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/114f385\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/3787x2109+0+0\/resize\/320x178!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fe8%2Fb6%2Fe5d01a6f4402b3bd40c176abca20%2F1393067-me-high-surf3-mamc.jpg 320w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/c4d8a11\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/3787x2109+0+0\/resize\/568x316!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fe8%2Fb6%2Fe5d01a6f4402b3bd40c176abca20%2F1393067-me-high-surf3-mamc.jpg 568w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/9b882ba\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/3787x2109+0+0\/resize\/768x428!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fe8%2Fb6%2Fe5d01a6f4402b3bd40c176abca20%2F1393067-me-high-surf3-mamc.jpg 768w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/217c83e\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/3787x2109+0+0\/resize\/1024x570!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fe8%2Fb6%2Fe5d01a6f4402b3bd40c176abca20%2F1393067-me-high-surf3-mamc.jpg 1024w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/8ba066f\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/3787x2109+0+0\/resize\/1200x668!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fe8%2Fb6%2Fe5d01a6f4402b3bd40c176abca20%2F1393067-me-high-surf3-mamc.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"100vw\"\/><img class=\"image\" alt=\"A large wave crashes over the rocks as viewed from the Redondo Beach Pier\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/562d03f\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/3787x2109+0+0\/resize\/320x178!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fe8%2Fb6%2Fe5d01a6f4402b3bd40c176abca20%2F1393067-me-high-surf3-mamc.jpg 320w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/52eb525\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/3787x2109+0+0\/resize\/568x316!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fe8%2Fb6%2Fe5d01a6f4402b3bd40c176abca20%2F1393067-me-high-surf3-mamc.jpg 568w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/41f5d9e\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/3787x2109+0+0\/resize\/768x428!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fe8%2Fb6%2Fe5d01a6f4402b3bd40c176abca20%2F1393067-me-high-surf3-mamc.jpg 768w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/22e4acf\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/3787x2109+0+0\/resize\/1024x570!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fe8%2Fb6%2Fe5d01a6f4402b3bd40c176abca20%2F1393067-me-high-surf3-mamc.jpg 1024w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/b819747\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/3787x2109+0+0\/resize\/1200x668!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fe8%2Fb6%2Fe5d01a6f4402b3bd40c176abca20%2F1393067-me-high-surf3-mamc.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, 100vw\" width=\"1200\" height=\"668\" src=\"https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/b819747\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/3787x2109+0+0\/resize\/1200x668!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fe8%2Fb6%2Fe5d01a6f4402b3bd40c176abca20%2F1393067-me-high-surf3-mamc.jpg\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\"\/>   <\/picture>\n<div class=\"figure-content\">\n<p>A large wave crashes over the rocks as viewed from the Redondo Beach Pier on Dec. 30, 2023.<\/p>\n<p>(Mel Melcon \/ Los Angeles Times)<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n<p>There\u2019s a high chance that this El Ni\u00f1o could be \u201cvery strong,\u201d perhaps one of the strongest on record, forecasters say. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019ve never seen ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific as warm as they are today in the region that matters for El Ni\u00f1o,\u201d UC climate scientist Daniel Swain said <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/live\/mmmXUkRp6-g?si=nvDsPzwzxu2lF7SU&amp;t=950\" target=\"_blank\">during<\/a> the Tuesday night town hall. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe eastern tropical Pacific Ocean right now today is warmer [for the calendar day] than in any previous recorded year. So this now exceeds \u201982-\u201983 and \u201997-\u201998 in the tropical Pacific,\u201d Swain said. \u201cWe have not seen an El Ni\u00f1o event already on the trajectory that this one is on.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The World Meteorological Organization said on July 31 that a \u201cstrong El Ni\u00f1o is developing\u201d and was expected to continue strengthening through early autumn. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cEl Ni\u00f1o is not just on our doorstep \u2014 it is inside the house and turning up the heat. And this is only a warmup act,\u201d United Nations Secretary-General Ant\u00f3nio Guterres said in a <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/wmo.int\/news\/media-centre\/strong-el-nino-expected-intensify\" target=\"_blank\">statement<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>While commonly thought of as a rainmaker for Southern California, scientists say that\u2019s not a given even during a \u201cvery strong\u201d or \u201csuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1o like this one is shaping up to be.<\/p>\n<p>Notably, the very strong 2015-16 El Ni\u00f1o <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/science\/sciencenow\/la-sci-sn-el-nino-california-20170214-story.html\">did not result in<\/a> above-average rain for Southern California. <\/p>\n<p>Still, experts say El Ni\u00f1o does tilt the odds for a rainier-than-normal winter for Southern California, and that officials across the state should be preparing for the prospect of a stormy winter. <\/p>\n<p>The strength of this El Ni\u00f1o \u201cis going to significantly shift the odds in favor of a particularly wet winter, especially in Southern California. But for an event this big, probably Northern California as well,\u201d Swain said. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhat it really does is increase the likelihood of particularly wet conditions starting in about late December and into January, February and March,\u201d Swain said. \u201cIt\u2019s not so much on the first third of the rainy season, but it has more to do with the peak, more consistent, reliable rainy season months.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In anticipation of a busy winter storm season, Swain said he\u2019s clearing  his calendar \u201cfrom January through March this coming year to be available if things get a little bit wild.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>El Ni\u00f1o also is expected to lengthen <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/environment\/story\/2026-04-16\/ocean-california-sst-enso-blob-marine-warming\">the marine heat wave off portions<\/a> of the  coast, which  is not yet being influenced by the climate pattern. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe El Ni\u00f1o is going to bring even warmer waters, and so the question of a long-duration heat wave is a possibility for this year,\u201d Merrifield said. \u201cThat has strong impacts on on the marine ecosystem and various parts of the food web.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>Warming <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/opinion\/story\/2026-04-30\/californias-ocean-heat-records\">suppresses upwelling<\/a> \u2014 which normally allows colder, deeper and nutrient-rich ocean water to rise closer to the surface. <\/p>\n<p>Among the impacts the California Department of Fish and Wildlife will be monitoring, according to McGuire, are levels of the neurotoxin <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/socal\/daily-pilot\/news\/story\/2025-05-01\/as-domoic-acid-kills-wildlife-officials-issue-shellfish-alerts-quarantine-for-humans\" target=\"_blank\">domoic acid<\/a>, which in late 2015 forced the <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/opc.ca.gov\/2015\/11\/commercial-dungeness-crab-season-opener-delayed-and-commercial-rock-crab-season-closed\/\" target=\"_blank\">postponement<\/a> of the opening of the Dungeness crab fishery season. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe state of California, working with California\u2019s crab fleet, will be launching domoic acid testing here in about 60 days as we approach Dungeness crab season,\u201d the state senator said. <\/p>\n<p>State officials are \u201canticipating higher-than-average domoic acid blooms because of the warmer ocean temperatures,\u201d McGuire said. The neurotoxin can be produced by an algae called <i>Pseudo-nitzschia,<\/i> and \u201cthe warmer the ocean is, the more algae,\u201d McGuire said. <\/p>\n<p>Domoic acid can accumulate in shellfish and cause nausea, diarrhea and illness in humans when consumed at low levels. At high levels, the toxin can cause short-term memory loss and seizures and be fatal in rare cases, state officials say. <\/p>\n<p>It also can wreak havoc on wildlife, with numerous <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2025-07-09\/brown-pelicans-released-after-deadly-algal-bloom\">pelicans<\/a> and <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2025-03-24\/domoic-acid-sea-lions-dolphins-stranded-southern-california-coast\">sea lions<\/a> being poisoned in recent years. <\/p>\n<p>El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s delivery of warmer ocean temperatures may add yet more stress to California\u2019s kelp. Past marine heat waves  caused Northern California\u2019s bull kelp habitats to decline by 90% since 2014, which trickles down to other species, including <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/projects\/california-abalone-species-recovery\/\" target=\"_blank\">endangered white abalone<\/a>, according to Nate Jaros, the Aquarium of the Pacific\u2019s vice president of animal care for fish and invertebrates. <\/p>\n<p>Even without El Ni\u00f1o, ocean temperatures have soared off parts of the  coastline \u2014 a factor in the recent rounds of <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2026-07-27\/l-a-s-muggy-misery-intense-humidity-makes-summer-heat-even-more-unbearable\">uncharacteristic muggy humidity<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn parts of Southern California where it\u2019s been foggy recently, it\u2019s not a damp fog by any means. It\u2019s a very humid, warm, muggy air mass,\u201d Swain said. \u201cWe\u2019re starting to see the warming off the coast of Northern California too. So that might continue to make for a fairly different coastal experience the rest of this fall than we would typically be used to.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<script async=\"async\" data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"https:\/\/pl30214220.effectivecpmnetwork.com\/9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<div id=\"container-9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\"><\/div>\r\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A strengthening El Ni\u00f1o could bring the highest sea levels ever recorded to the California coast this year, raising the risk of widespread and damaging flooding. It\u2019s the latest effect forecast for what\u2019s expected to be an historically strong event, one forecasters warn could also lash Southern California with powerful rain and broil both land&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":37234,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/31861c0\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/3992x2096+0+283\/resize\/1200x630!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fae%2F9b%2F40bddb6a4d809e97c92001b031d5%2F1565167-me-flood-long-beach-kek-001.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37233","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-hub"],"brizy_media":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37233","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=37233"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37233\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/37234"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=37233"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=37233"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=37233"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}