{"id":34459,"date":"2026-08-09T11:45:48","date_gmt":"2026-08-09T06:45:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=34459"},"modified":"2026-08-09T11:45:48","modified_gmt":"2026-08-09T06:45:48","slug":"super-el-nino-could-bring-wet-winter-and-flooding-to-western-us-climate-scientists-warn-us-weather","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=34459","title":{"rendered":"\u2018Super El Ni\u00f1o\u2019 could bring wet winter and flooding to western US, climate scientists warn | US weather"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><script>\r\n  atOptions = {\r\n    'key' : '644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6',\r\n    'format' : 'iframe',\r\n    'height' : 90,\r\n    'width' : 728,\r\n    'params' : {}\r\n  };\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script src=\"https:\/\/www.highperformanceformat.com\/644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p class=\"dcr-1s160rg\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2026\/apr\/13\/el-nino-explainer\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">El Ni\u00f1o<\/a>, a recurring climate phenomenon marked by above-average sea surface temperatures, when changes in wind patterns allow warmer water to spread across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, could spell a wet winter for portions of the western and south-eastern US, climate models show. Coastal areas may be at elevated risk of flooding, experts warn.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1s160rg\">Climate scientists predict this year\u2019s \u201csuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1o, a label assigned when sea surface temperatures <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2026\/apr\/13\/el-nino-explainer\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">climb by at least 2C<\/a>, will be the strongest of the century. The weather system is expected to intensify in the fall and winter, persisting until early spring 2027, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/news-release\/el-nino-forms-expected-to-strengthen-say-noaa-forecasters\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">according to<\/a> the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa).<\/p>\n<figure id=\"15b79b42-07f9-4588-a860-32f1b82e668a\" data-spacefinder-role=\"richLink\" data-spacefinder-type=\"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement\" class=\"dcr-1oq85qr\"><gu-island name=\"RichLinkComponent\" priority=\"feature\" deferuntil=\"idle\" props=\"{&quot;richLinkIndex&quot;:2,&quot;element&quot;:{&quot;_type&quot;:&quot;model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement&quot;,&quot;prefix&quot;:&quot;Related: &quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;El Ni\u00f1o could push 50m people into acute hunger before end of next year &quot;,&quot;elementId&quot;:&quot;15b79b42-07f9-4588-a860-32f1b82e668a&quot;,&quot;role&quot;:&quot;richLink&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2026\/aug\/05\/el-nino-could-push-50m-people-acute-hunger-next-year&quot;},&quot;ajaxUrl&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/api.nextgen.guardianapps.co.uk&quot;,&quot;format&quot;:{&quot;design&quot;:0,&quot;display&quot;:0,&quot;theme&quot;:0}}\"\/><\/figure>\n<p class=\"dcr-1s160rg\">California has a 70%-100% chance of experiencing above-average rainfall along its coast, according to a model from the European center for medium-range forecasts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1s160rg\">\u201cEl Ni\u00f1o is never going to guarantee any particular outcome in any California winter,\u201d Daniel Swain, the UCLA climate scientist, noted at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/live\/mmmXUkRp6-g?si=8gJsdV0Qa4F4C6I9\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">a virtual El Ni\u00f1o town hall<\/a> hosted by the California state senator Mike McGuire this week. But, he added, a weather event as strong as the one being currently predicted shifts the odds in favor of a wet winter: \u201cThat will likely affect and increase the likelihood of coastal flooding, particularly during strong storm events or during king tide events.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1s160rg\">California has been devastated by El Ni\u00f1os in the past.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1s160rg\">A 1982-83 weather system destroyed 33 oceanfront homes and damaged 3,000 other residences, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coastal.ca.gov\/climate\/extreme-weather\/el-nino\/\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">according to the California coastal commission<\/a>. In a 1997-98 El Ni\u00f1o, California experienced <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncei.noaa.gov\/monitoring-content\/billions\/reports\/19971201-19980228-severe-storm\/tr9802.pdf\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">massive flooding and 17 storm-related deaths<\/a>. In more recent history, during the El Ni\u00f1o winter of 2015-16, state officials reported <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usgs.gov\/programs\/cmhrp\/news\/severe-erosion-us-west-coast-during-2015-16-el-nino\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">record coastal erosion<\/a> on California beaches.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1s160rg\">\u201cWith less beach in front of the coastline, the waves will have even greater impact on the shoreline with more likelihood of flooding and undercutting of cliffs,\u201d said Mark Merrifield of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, at McGuire\u2019s town hall.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1s160rg\">El Ni\u00f1o is not expected to completely erase drought in the US south-west, where some reservoirs are at an all-time low. \u201cIt would have to be exceptionally wet,\u201d Dr Joel Lisonbee, senior associate scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2026\/apr\/13\/el-nino-explainer\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">told<\/a> the Guardian in June. \u201cThat would also mean flooding, and the destruction and potential loss of life that comes along with that.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1s160rg\">Swathes of the US Gulf coast and east coast, stretching from Florida up to the mid-Atlantic region, are facing similar high odds of increased precipitation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1s160rg\">During El Ni\u00f1o years, central and south Florida has historically experienced more severe weather with more tornadoes and flood events, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/tae\/enso\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">according to Noaa<\/a>. In a 1998 El Ni\u00f1o winter, an outbreak of unusually strong tornadoes in that region led to 42 deaths and more than $100m in damage.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1s160rg\">Experts warn that not every El Ni\u00f1o behaves the same, nor does it affect different geographical regions in the same way. Some have fueled hurricanes and heavy precipitation, while others have triggered extreme heat and drought.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1s160rg\">While this is \u201ca natural cycle\u201d, Merrifield said at the town hall, the potential effects of a temporary sea-level rise in California from the super El Ni\u00f1o also \u201cgives us a bit of a stress test of what the state is likely to experience with future climate change\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1s160rg\">\u201cThe El Ni\u00f1o, I think, is a good opportunity to sort of see where our vulnerabilities are throughout the state and what we can do to prepare,\u201d Merrifield added, \u201cand it also is a sobering look at what we can expect with climate change.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<script async=\"async\" data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"https:\/\/pl30214220.effectivecpmnetwork.com\/9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<div id=\"container-9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\"><\/div>\r\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>El Ni\u00f1o, a recurring climate phenomenon marked by above-average sea surface temperatures, when changes in wind patterns allow warmer water to spread across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, could spell a wet winter for portions of the western and south-eastern US, climate models show. Coastal areas may be at elevated risk of flooding, experts&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":34460,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/d541f1c7d8389bb77ee6878e84d649bbab674a95\/366_0_3257_2606\/master\/3257.jpg?width=1200&height=630&quality=85&auto=format&fit=crop&precrop=40:21,offset-x50,offset-y0&overlay-align=bottom%2Cleft&overlay-width=100p&overlay-base64=L2ltZy9zdGF0aWMvb3ZlcmxheXMvdGctZGVmYXVsdC5wbmc&enable=upscale&s=2fb542db66d1755a728b9af02c7c8012","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-34459","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-real-trending-viral-news"],"brizy_media":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34459","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=34459"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34459\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/34460"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=34459"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=34459"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=34459"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}