{"id":3354,"date":"2026-07-11T01:16:09","date_gmt":"2026-07-10T20:16:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=3354"},"modified":"2026-07-11T01:16:09","modified_gmt":"2026-07-10T20:16:09","slug":"strong-el-nino-now-a-virtual-certainty-what-it-means-for-california","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=3354","title":{"rendered":"Strong El Ni\u00f1o now a virtual certainty: What it means for California"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><script>\r\n  atOptions = {\r\n    'key' : '644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6',\r\n    'format' : 'iframe',\r\n    'height' : 90,\r\n    'width' : 728,\r\n    'params' : {}\r\n  };\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script src=\"https:\/\/www.highperformanceformat.com\/644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div data-element=\"story-body\" data-subscriber-content=\"\">\n<p>A strong El Ni\u00f1o is virtually certain to develop this year, federal scientists say, and may end up being one of the strongest such events on record. <\/p>\n<p>The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u2019s Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that there\u2019s a 97% chance El Ni\u00f1o will be either \u201cstrong\u201d or \u201cvery strong\u201d over a three-month period ending this December. There\u2019s an 81% chance it\u2019ll be \u201cvery strong.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>That could have a major impact in California, as strong El Ni\u00f1os significantly tilt the odds of expected weather outcomes during the winter. For the southern part of the state, that means a higher chance of above-average rainfall, risking a winter of <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/jetstream\/enso_impacts\" target=\"_blank\">flash floods and landslides.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Officials warn that the climate pattern \u2014 characterized by warmer water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean \u2014 will also increase the risk of heat waves on land and at sea, which are already being exacerbated by human-caused global warming. <\/p>\n<p>Temperatures are already increasing in those parts of the Pacific. A section of those ocean waters in June was the fourth-warmest recorded for the month dating back to 1950, according to Michelle L\u2019Heureux, physical scientist at the Climate Prediction Center and lead forecaster for governmental updates on El Ni\u00f1o. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe warm pool of water in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean is expanding farther to the east,\u201d L\u2019Heureux said. Already, precipitation has been enhanced over the central and east-central tropical Pacific.<\/p>\n<p>During three of the four \u201cvery strong\u201d El Ni\u00f1os in the global record, downtown Los Angeles got significantly more rain than average. In two \u2014 1982-83 and 1997-98 \u2014 downtown L.A. got more than double its usual yearly rainfall. <\/p>\n<p>But the connection is not absolute. During the last \u201cvery strong\u201d <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/science\/sciencenow\/la-sci-sn-el-nino-california-20170214-story.html\">El Ni\u00f1o in 2015-16<\/a>, downtown got only half its typical annual rainfall. <\/p>\n<p>The \u201cstrong\u201d El Ni\u00f1o of winter 2023-24 saw well-above average rainfall across coastal Southern California and slightly above-normal precipitation in coastal Northern California, the state Department of Conservation <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.conservation.ca.gov\/cgs\/landslides\/el-nino\" target=\"_blank\">said<\/a>. There was below-normal precipitation in interior areas like the Sierra Nevada and southeastern state deserts. <\/p>\n<p>That winter brought the <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2024-02-11\/l-a-staved-off-disaster-with-this-storm-extreme-weather-is-testing-our-luck\">second-rainiest three-day period for downtown L.A.<\/a> since recordkeeping began in 1877, and hundreds of landslides were reported around L.A. County. <\/p>\n<div class=\"enhancement\" data-click=\"enhancement\" data-align-center=\"\">\n<figure class=\"figure m-0\"> <picture><source type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/a30f6c2\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1308x739+0+0\/resize\/320x181!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F5c%2Fd5%2F20f7da564ca891f5afc82d6cdf6a%2Fscreen-shot-2024-02-05-at-8-13-52-pm.png 320w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/3a9ac9e\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1308x739+0+0\/resize\/568x321!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F5c%2Fd5%2F20f7da564ca891f5afc82d6cdf6a%2Fscreen-shot-2024-02-05-at-8-13-52-pm.png 568w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/49d128a\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1308x739+0+0\/resize\/768x434!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F5c%2Fd5%2F20f7da564ca891f5afc82d6cdf6a%2Fscreen-shot-2024-02-05-at-8-13-52-pm.png 768w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/6b32a1e\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1308x739+0+0\/resize\/1024x579!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F5c%2Fd5%2F20f7da564ca891f5afc82d6cdf6a%2Fscreen-shot-2024-02-05-at-8-13-52-pm.png 1024w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/39dd39a\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1308x739+0+0\/resize\/1200x678!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F5c%2Fd5%2F20f7da564ca891f5afc82d6cdf6a%2Fscreen-shot-2024-02-05-at-8-13-52-pm.png 1200w\" sizes=\"100vw\"\/><img class=\"image\" alt=\"Mudflow on city street\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/8720af1\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1308x739+0+0\/resize\/320x181!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F5c%2Fd5%2F20f7da564ca891f5afc82d6cdf6a%2Fscreen-shot-2024-02-05-at-8-13-52-pm.png 320w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/5c122da\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1308x739+0+0\/resize\/568x321!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F5c%2Fd5%2F20f7da564ca891f5afc82d6cdf6a%2Fscreen-shot-2024-02-05-at-8-13-52-pm.png 568w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/97400b5\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1308x739+0+0\/resize\/768x434!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F5c%2Fd5%2F20f7da564ca891f5afc82d6cdf6a%2Fscreen-shot-2024-02-05-at-8-13-52-pm.png 768w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/582eef4\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1308x739+0+0\/resize\/1024x579!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F5c%2Fd5%2F20f7da564ca891f5afc82d6cdf6a%2Fscreen-shot-2024-02-05-at-8-13-52-pm.png 1024w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/64e48af\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1308x739+0+0\/resize\/1200x678!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F5c%2Fd5%2F20f7da564ca891f5afc82d6cdf6a%2Fscreen-shot-2024-02-05-at-8-13-52-pm.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, 100vw\" width=\"1200\" height=\"678\" src=\"https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/64e48af\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1308x739+0+0\/resize\/1200x678!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F5c%2Fd5%2F20f7da564ca891f5afc82d6cdf6a%2Fscreen-shot-2024-02-05-at-8-13-52-pm.png\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\"\/>   <\/picture>\n<div class=\"figure-content\">\n<p>Debris lines Fryman Road in Studio City in February 2024 after nine homes were evacuated because of a landslide from heavy rainfall.<\/p>\n<p>(Carlin Stiehl \/ For The Times)<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n<p>That most recent \u201cstrong\u201d El Ni\u00f1o also played a role in record global temperatures in 2024, <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/wmo.int\/news\/media-centre\/wmo-prepare-el-nino\" target=\"_blank\">said <\/a>Celeste Saulo, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization. <\/p>\n<p>Along with warmer ocean water, El Ni\u00f1o <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/0000019d-b780-deae-a3bd-b7cb31700000-123\" data-autoplayable-video=\"true\">is characterized by<\/a> changing conditions in the atmosphere. The effect results in the typical east-to-west trade winds weakening or even sometimes reversing, allowing warmer water from the western Pacific to move eastward. <\/p>\n<p>For California, this typically shifts the winter jet stream <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/jetstream\/enso_impacts\" target=\"_blank\">farther south<\/a>, potentially bringing more storms to Southern California, according to NOAA.<\/p>\n<div class=\"enhancement\" data-click=\"enhancement\" data-align-center=\"\">\n<figure class=\"figure m-0\"> <picture><source type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/3300663\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1042x938+0+0\/resize\/320x288!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F9a%2F7f%2Fca7eecbf4b4a93bf37fba321d8ce%2Ffig1-slp-wind-ssta.png 320w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/931442a\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1042x938+0+0\/resize\/568x511!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F9a%2F7f%2Fca7eecbf4b4a93bf37fba321d8ce%2Ffig1-slp-wind-ssta.png 568w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/1b5a6ea\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1042x938+0+0\/resize\/768x691!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F9a%2F7f%2Fca7eecbf4b4a93bf37fba321d8ce%2Ffig1-slp-wind-ssta.png 768w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/6060a32\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1042x938+0+0\/resize\/1024x922!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F9a%2F7f%2Fca7eecbf4b4a93bf37fba321d8ce%2Ffig1-slp-wind-ssta.png 1024w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/b1aa67f\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1042x938+0+0\/resize\/1200x1080!\/format\/webp\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F9a%2F7f%2Fca7eecbf4b4a93bf37fba321d8ce%2Ffig1-slp-wind-ssta.png 1200w\" sizes=\"100vw\"\/><img class=\"image\" alt=\"A marine heat wave in the ocean off the coast of Southern California and further west off Northern California and Oregon.\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/6988554\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1042x938+0+0\/resize\/320x288!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F9a%2F7f%2Fca7eecbf4b4a93bf37fba321d8ce%2Ffig1-slp-wind-ssta.png 320w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/68e990b\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1042x938+0+0\/resize\/568x511!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F9a%2F7f%2Fca7eecbf4b4a93bf37fba321d8ce%2Ffig1-slp-wind-ssta.png 568w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/0b387ba\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1042x938+0+0\/resize\/768x691!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F9a%2F7f%2Fca7eecbf4b4a93bf37fba321d8ce%2Ffig1-slp-wind-ssta.png 768w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/d700885\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1042x938+0+0\/resize\/1024x922!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F9a%2F7f%2Fca7eecbf4b4a93bf37fba321d8ce%2Ffig1-slp-wind-ssta.png 1024w,https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/2216feb\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1042x938+0+0\/resize\/1200x1080!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F9a%2F7f%2Fca7eecbf4b4a93bf37fba321d8ce%2Ffig1-slp-wind-ssta.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, 100vw\" width=\"1200\" height=\"1080\" src=\"https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/2216feb\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/1042x938+0+0\/resize\/1200x1080!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F9a%2F7f%2Fca7eecbf4b4a93bf37fba321d8ce%2Ffig1-slp-wind-ssta.png\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\"\/>   <\/picture>\n<div class=\"figure-content\">\n<p>A marine heat wave in the ocean off the coast of Southern California and farther west of Northern California and Oregon. <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n<p>El Ni\u00f1o is developing even as the oceans are already experiencing heat waves. The pattern is expected to prolong an unrelated existing marine heat wave off the coast of California, which otherwise would have been expected to start fading between October and December. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe Pacific is experiencing a historic marine heat wave \u2014 but it\u2019s far from alone. Every major ocean basin across the globe is currently experiencing unusually warm sea surface temperatures driven by climate change,\u201d the nonprofit Climate Central <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.climatecentral.org\/climate-shift-index-alert\/Typhoon-bavi-intensifies-climate-fueled-ocean-heat-global-marine-heat-wave?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=Climate%20Shift%20Index%20Alert%20OceansTyphoon%20Bavi&amp;utm_content=Climate%20Shift%20Index%20Alert%20OceansTyphoon%20Bavi+CID_f0999fa6781686028a05ea61304db65c&amp;utm_source=Climate%20Central%20Email%20Campaign%20Monitor&amp;utm_term=Link%20to%20this%20alert%20in%20your%20coverage%20here\" target=\"_blank\">said<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>Andrew Leising, a research oceanographer at NOAA\u2019s Southwest Fisheries Science Center, said at this point, \u201catmospheric changes due to El Ni\u00f1o are likely helping maintain these warmer-than-normal temperatures\u201d off the Southern California coast. The marine heat wave there \u2014 which began last year \u2014 has been about the same size and area over the last month. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe still expect to see warming due to El Ni\u00f1o begin sometime in later summer or fall, which will perpetuate these conditions, and likely expand the warmer-than-normal region further up the coast,\u201d Leising said. <\/p>\n<p>Another marine heat wave farther west off the coast of Northern California and Oregon began around May and \u201chas slowly gotten larger and a little bit more intense,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<p>Exceptionally warm waters are helping to fuel Super Typhoon Bavi, which is expected to hit Taiwan from Friday night through Saturday. According to the island\u2019s <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/focustaiwan.tw\/society\/202607090024\" target=\"_blank\">Central News Agency<\/a>, the typhoon could bring 35 inches of rain to the island\u2019s northern mountains and dangerous waves up to 20 feet high, prompting officials to issue an unprecedented \u201cmega wave\u201d warning. Schools and offices in northern and eastern Taiwan were set to <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/focustaiwan.tw\/society\/202607090023\" target=\"_blank\">shut<\/a> Friday due to the typhoon. <\/p>\n<p>Besides boosting the odds of a wetter winter for Southern California, El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s typical effects during wintertime in the Northern Hemisphere include wetter conditions for the rest of the southern U.S., southern South America and parts of the Horn of Africa and central Asia, according to the World Meteorological Organization. <\/p>\n<p>Conversely, El Ni\u00f1o typically brings drier conditions to the Pacific Northwest, as well as Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia, experts <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/wmo.int\/news\/media-centre\/wmo-prepare-el-nino\" target=\"_blank\">said<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<script async=\"async\" data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"https:\/\/pl30214220.effectivecpmnetwork.com\/9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<div id=\"container-9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\"><\/div>\r\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A strong El Ni\u00f1o is virtually certain to develop this year, federal scientists say, and may end up being one of the strongest such events on record. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u2019s Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that there\u2019s a 97% chance El Ni\u00f1o will be either \u201cstrong\u201d or \u201cvery strong\u201d over a three-month&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3355,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/572b9cf\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/3194x1677+203+0\/resize\/1200x630!\/quality\/75\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fcb%2Fe0%2Fb0c01be045768797713d4d5bde4c%2F1493558-la-me-laweather-feb-storm-04-ajs.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3354","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-real-trending-viral-news"],"brizy_media":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3354","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3354"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3354\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/3355"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3354"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3354"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3354"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}