{"id":31953,"date":"2026-08-08T05:35:57","date_gmt":"2026-08-08T00:35:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=31953"},"modified":"2026-08-08T05:35:57","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T00:35:57","slug":"trumps-golden-age-reality-check","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=31953","title":{"rendered":"Trump&#039;s golden age reality check"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><script>\r\n  atOptions = {\r\n    'key' : '644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6',\r\n    'format' : 'iframe',\r\n    'height' : 90,\r\n    'width' : 728,\r\n    'params' : {}\r\n  };\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script src=\"https:\/\/www.highperformanceformat.com\/644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.axios.com\/iwxnyoH-BQ8MwMRdQLzfrJzhtIA=\/1366x768\/smart\/2025\/05\/05\/172529-1746465929752.jpg\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/politics-policy\/donald-trump\" target=\"_blank\">Trump<\/a> administration&#8217;s rosy promises of a new &#8220;golden age&#8221; with 6% economic growth have fizzled on the realities of slower-than-anticipated growth and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/07\/31\/ceos-affordability-pol\" target=\"_blank\">souring<\/a> consumer sentiment.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Why it matters: <\/strong>President Trump&#8217;s roller coaster economy has risen with consumer spending and AI investment but also tumbled on tariff uncertainty, stubborn inflation and his Iran war, muddling the economic picture.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<ul>\n<li>Trump preaches a golden future, but many <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/07\/27\/trump-economy-polling-democrats-midterms\" target=\"_blank\">voters aren&#8217;t buying it<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>That&#8217;s a warning sign for the midterms: Reuters-Ipsos <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/us\/democrats-lead-republicans-economy-trump-approval-falls-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2026-08-03\/\" target=\"_blank\">polling<\/a> out this week found that Americans favored Democrats over Republicans on economic policy for the first time in nearly a decade.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>The big picture: <\/strong>Roughly 18 months into Trump&#8217;s second term, the economy has proved more resilient than many expected, buoyed in large part by an AI infrastructure buildout that transcends Washington politics.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>But the dramatic acceleration the administration promised has yet to materialize. <\/li>\n<li>Many economists believe the administration&#8217;s most ambitious growth targets would require a productivity boom well beyond anything currently visible in the data.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Reality check: <\/strong>The economy grew at a 1.5% annualized rate in the second quarter, slowing from the 2.1% pace in the first quarter.  <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The economy has grown at roughly a 2% annualized pace since the start of 2025.<\/li>\n<li>That&#8217;s a solid pace, but it&#8217;s little different from the economy&#8217;s long-run trend and well short of the growth rates some of Trump&#8217;s top economic officials have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/remarks\/2025\/01\/the-inaugural-address\/\" target=\"_blank\">hyped<\/a> in recent months.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Flashback<\/strong>: If you asked Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in January, growth could have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usnews.com\/news\/top-news\/articles\/2026-01-20\/lutnick-expects-us-first-quarter-growth-above-5-warns-eu-against-retaliation\" target=\"_blank\">hit 5%<\/a> in the first quarter \u2014 even 6%, if the Fed cut interest rates, he said \u2014 which <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/07\/31\/fed-rates-dissenters-policy\" target=\"_blank\">didn&#8217;t happen<\/a>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Top White House economist Kevin Hassett <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxnews.com\/media\/white-house-economist-projects-gdp-growth-could-top-5-amid-capital-spending-boom\" target=\"_blank\">pitched<\/a> up to 6% growth back in the spring, attributing the boost to a future <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pbs.org\/newshour\/show\/trump-promised-a-manufacturing-boom-but-factory-jobs-continue-to-decline\" target=\"_blank\">factory<\/a> boom.<\/li>\n<li>After back-to-back quarters of roughly 4% growth in the middle of 2025 \u2014 boosted in part by swings in trade tied to tariffs \u2014 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent <a href=\"https:\/\/home.treasury.gov\/news\/press-releases\/sb0353\" target=\"_blank\">called<\/a> the performance  a &#8220;harbinger of what&#8217;s to come.&#8221;<\/li>\n<li>Bessent&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/axios\/status\/1861100736882282722?s=20\" target=\"_blank\">&#8220;3-3-3&#8221; economic blueprint <\/a>targets sustained 3% annual growth.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Yes, but:<\/strong> The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbo.gov\/publication\/62105#_idTextAnchor043\" target=\"_blank\">Congressional Budget Office<\/a> estimates potential GDP growth will average about 2% over the next decade. <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The last time the economy expanded at rates consistent with Trump officials&#8217; high-end predictions was during the one-off reopening from the pandemic.<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;That&#8217;s just unrealistic,&#8221; says Michael Klein, an economics professor at Tuft University&#8217;s Fletcher School and executive editor of EconoFact. &#8220;You don&#8217;t see that in an economy like the United States.&#8221;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>What they&#8217;re saying<\/strong>: Joseph Lavorgna, a former advisor to Bessent, says 3% growth is plausible, arguing the latest 1.5% GDP print didn&#8217;t &#8220;fully \u2026 capture the robustness in the economy.&#8221;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Underlying demand \u2014 stripping out <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/07\/28\/ai-boom-imports-gdp\" target=\"_blank\">volatile swings in trade<\/a>, inventories and government spending \u2014 grew at a 3.9% annualized pace in the second quarter, thanks to strong consumer and business spending.<\/li>\n<li>When Fox Business&#8217; Maria Bartiromo <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxbusiness.com\/video\/6402520961112\" target=\"_blank\">pressed<\/a> Hassett Friday on his recent prediction of 4% <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/shorts\/JQLNMsymgMc\" target=\"_blank\">growth<\/a> in the second half of the year, Hassett argued he was discussing domestic demand rather than the topline number.<\/li>\n<li>White House spokesperson Kush Desai said in a statement that &#8220;[d]espite possible inventories data lags, the Q2 GDP report reinforces \u2026 that the American consumer remains resilient and the long-term restoration of America&#8217;s industrial base continues.&#8221;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>What to watch: <\/strong>The Trump administration on Monday touted a &#8220;nowcast&#8221; produced by the Atlanta Fed, which currently estimates growth is running at a robust 6% annualized pace in the current quarter.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>But economists treat that figure with caution this early in the quarter: the model is still working with only a limited set of July economic data, and the estimate can change sharply as more reports are released.<\/li>\n<li>At roughly the same point in the second quarter it was estimating growth of about 3.5% \u2014 more than double the 1.5% pace the economy ultimately posted.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Between the lines<\/strong>: Lavorgna tells Axios he &#8220;can&#8217;t get there on the arithmetic&#8221; to 4% or 5% growth, noting that with a stagnant workforce, there&#8217;d have to be a significant boost in productivity to get there without inflation.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>&#8220;The dynamics aren&#8217;t going to allow us to grow at those growth rates, at least for the foreseeable future,&#8221; he says.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Go deeper: <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/07\/30\/gdp-q2-economy-ai\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. economy grows at 1.5% rate in second quarter<\/a><\/p>\n<script async=\"async\" data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"https:\/\/pl30214220.effectivecpmnetwork.com\/9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<div id=\"container-9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\"><\/div>\r\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Trump administration&#8217;s rosy promises of a new &#8220;golden age&#8221; with 6% economic growth have fizzled on the realities of slower-than-anticipated growth and souring consumer sentiment. Why it matters: President Trump&#8217;s roller coaster economy has risen with consumer spending and AI investment but also tumbled on tariff uncertainty, stubborn inflation and his Iran war, muddling&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":31954,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.axios.com\/iwxnyoH-BQ8MwMRdQLzfrJzhtIA=\/1366x768\/smart\/2025\/05\/05\/172529-1746465929752.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31953","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-political-news"],"brizy_media":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31953","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=31953"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31953\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/31954"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=31953"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=31953"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=31953"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}