{"id":22939,"date":"2026-07-31T08:52:03","date_gmt":"2026-07-31T03:52:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=22939"},"modified":"2026-07-31T08:52:03","modified_gmt":"2026-07-31T03:52:03","slug":"larry-sabato-shifts-14-races-toward-democrats-declares-georgia-senate-now-likely-d","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=22939","title":{"rendered":"Larry Sabato Shifts 14 Races Toward Democrats \u2014 Declares Georgia Senate Now \u2018Likely D\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><script>\r\n  atOptions = {\r\n    'key' : '644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6',\r\n    'format' : 'iframe',\r\n    'height' : 90,\r\n    'width' : 728,\r\n    'params' : {}\r\n  };\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script src=\"https:\/\/www.highperformanceformat.com\/644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_5746836\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-5746836\" class=\"wp-image-5746836 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/am12.mediaite.com\/med\/cnt\/uploads\/2026\/07\/AP25269790696631-1200x802.jpg\" alt=\"U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga\" width=\"1200\" height=\"802\" \/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-5746836\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">AP Photo\/Mike Stewart, File<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>Larry Sabato&#8217;s<\/strong> Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia&#8217;s Center for Politics moved several key races leftward Thursday &#8212; including a highly-watched Senate race in Georgia.<\/p>\n<p>President<strong> Donald Trump&#8217;s<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaite.com\/media\/tv\/fox-host-bluntly-draws-grim-conclusion-from-recent-trump-polls-people-are-not-confident-that-our-government-is-competent\/\">polling numbers<\/a> have been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaite.com\/politics\/trump\/poll-shows-americans-overwhelmingly-oppose-naming-government-buildings-after-trump-while-in-office\/\">brutal<\/a> as his second term has progressed, with his immigration crackdown <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaite.com\/media\/news\/stunning-new-poll-shows-support-for-trump-immigration-crackdown-has-cratered-especially-among-republicans\/\">cratering<\/a> his support, the handling of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaite.com\/politics\/trump\/trump-claims-the-epstein-story-has-boosted-his-approval-rating-to-best-numbers-ive-ever-had\/\">Epstein files<\/a> getting abysmal marks, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaite.com\/media\/news\/retired-general-calls-trump-an-absolutely-terrible-commander-in-chief-predicts-nuremberg-trials-for-his-illegal-orders\/\">Iran War<\/a> being massively unpopular, and even Americans\u2019 views on his handling of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaite.com\/politics\/new-fox-news-poll-reveals-grim-numbers-for-gop-on-economy\/\">economy<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaite.com\/politics\/trump\/trumps-approval-ratings-on-inflation-are-so-bad-pollster-had-to-redo-graph\/\">inflation<\/a> taking body blows &#8212; and his <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaite.com\/politics\/new-poll-says-voters-are-fired-up-to-vote-in-upcoming-midterm-elections-and-furious-with-trump-and-gop\/\">popularity woes<\/a> are dragging down the GOP in races across the country.<\/p>\n<p>That certainly seems to be the case in Georgia, where Sen. <strong>Jon Ossoff&#8217;s<\/strong> (D-GA) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaite.com\/politics\/republicans-in-panic-mode-over-senate-seat-they-thought-theyd-flip-a-recipe-for-losing\/\">re-election bid prospects<\/a> have gone from hopeful to increasingly solid.<\/p>\n<p>Ossoff has served in the U.S. Senate since winning a runoff election, along with his colleague Sen. <strong>Raphael<\/strong> <strong>Warnock<\/strong> (D-GA), on Jan. 5, 2021 \u2014 one day before the infamous attack on the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters.<\/p>\n<p>The Republican nominee is Rep. <strong>Mike Collins<\/strong> (R-GA), who is currently embroiled in a scandal regarding <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaite.com\/media\/news\/gop-senate-candidate-ends-press-conference-after-dodging-questions-about-son-in-laws-white-nationalist-posts\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">white nationalist posts<\/a> by his son-in-law.<\/p>\n<p>Sabato&#8217;s rating moved Georgia from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic, <a href=\"https:\/\/centerforpolitics.org\/crystalball\/georgia-senate-the-peach-state-ripens-for-democrats\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reported<\/a> <strong>J. Miles Coleman<\/strong>, noting that while Ossoff was &#8220;the only Democrat running for reelection in a state that Donald Trump carried in 2024,&#8221; it&#8217;s looking increasingly likely he&#8217;ll be able to successfully defend his seat.<\/p>\n<p>One key reason, wrote Coleman, is that while Ossoff &#8220;has proven to be one of the cycle\u2019s strongest fundraisers,&#8221; Collins had to fight through a primary and then a runoff, meaning the two candidates &#8220;entered the general election in different financial universes.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Coleman&#8217;s analysis noted that Ossoff has led Collins in the polls, but many of the margins were &#8220;in our estimation, likely too good to be true for Democrats.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>However, he added, &#8220;while we can easily see this race being decided by a mid-single-digit margin, we are increasingly confident of the outcome&#8221; and &#8220;it would be a true shock if Ossoff actually went on to lose.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaite.com\/media\/tv\/election-forecaster-says-democrats-could-actually-flip-senate-seat-in-texas-because-gop-candidate-is-so-awful\/\">Sabato&#8217;s Crystal Ball<\/a> also updated ratings for 13 House seats, all to a more favorable category for Democrats, as <a href=\"https:\/\/centerforpolitics.org\/crystalball\/thirteen-house-rating-changes-toward-democrats-as-seat-by-seat-assessment-better-aligns-with-our-november-expectations\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reported<\/a> by <strong>Kyle Kondrik<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Those races included:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><strong>Lauren Boebert<\/strong> (R, CO-4): Safe Republican to Likely Republican<br \/>\n<strong>Jahana Hayes<\/strong> (D, CT-5): Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic<br \/>\n<strong>Kathy Castor<\/strong> (D, FL-14): Leans Republican to Toss-up<br \/>\n<strong>Sharice Davids<\/strong> (D, KS-3): Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic<br \/>\n<strong>Don Davis<\/strong> (D, NC-1): Leans Republican to Toss-up<br \/>\n<strong>Chuck Edwards<\/strong> (R, NC-11): Leans Republican to Toss-up<br \/>\n<strong>Nellie Pou<\/strong> (D, NJ-9): Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic<br \/>\n<strong>Mike Lawler<\/strong> (R, NY-17): Leans Republican to Toss-up<br \/>\n<strong>Josh Riley<\/strong> (D, NY-19): Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic<br \/>\n<strong>Max Miller<\/strong> (R, OH-7): Likely Republican to Leans Republican<br \/>\n<strong>Rob Bresnahan<\/strong> (R, PA-8): Leans Republican to Toss-up<br \/>\nOpen seat in SC-1: Safe Republican to Likely Republican<br \/>\n<strong>Monica De La Cruz<\/strong> (R, TX-15): Likely Republican to Leans Republican<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>&#8220;Democrats are better-positioned thanks to the overall political environment and broader midterm trends,&#8221; wrote Kondrik, and the mid-decade redistricting &#8220;helped Republicans build an edge in our ratings.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Our overall topline assessment is basically unchanged, though: Democrats remain favored to flip the House majority in November, but Republicans have a path, too,&#8221; he wrote.<\/p>\n<p>Currently, Sabato&#8217;s ratings list 179 seats as Safe Republican; 208 rated Safe, Likely, or Leans R; 181 Safe Democratic; and 207 Safe, Likely, or Leans D. Twenty races are listed as Toss-Up, 15 currently held by Republicans and five by Democrats.<\/p>\n<p>The post <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaite.com\/politics\/larry-sabato-shifts-14-races-toward-democrats-declares-georgia-senate-now-likely-d\/\">Larry Sabato Shifts 14 Races Toward Democrats \u2014 Declares Georgia Senate Now \u2018Likely D\u2019<\/a> first appeared on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaite.com\">Mediaite<\/a>.<\/p>\n<script async=\"async\" data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"https:\/\/pl30214220.effectivecpmnetwork.com\/9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<div id=\"container-9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\"><\/div>\r\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AP Photo\/Mike Stewart, File Larry Sabato&#8217;s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia&#8217;s Center for Politics moved several key races leftward Thursday &#8212; including a highly-watched Senate race in Georgia. President Donald Trump&#8217;s polling numbers have been brutal as his second term has progressed, with his immigration crackdown cratering his support, the handling of the&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":22940,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/am12.mediaite.com\/med\/cnt\/uploads\/2026\/07\/AP25269790696631-1200x802.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22939","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-newsweek-trending"],"brizy_media":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22939","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=22939"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22939\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/22940"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=22939"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=22939"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=22939"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}