{"id":22736,"date":"2026-07-31T04:38:06","date_gmt":"2026-07-30T23:38:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=22736"},"modified":"2026-07-31T04:38:06","modified_gmt":"2026-07-30T23:38:06","slug":"new-york-rep-mike-lawlers-race-now-a-toss-up-as-dems-target-battleground-district","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=22736","title":{"rendered":"New York Rep. Mike Lawler&#8217;s race now a &#8216;toss-up&#8217; as Dems target battleground district"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><script>\r\n  atOptions = {\r\n    'key' : '644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6',\r\n    'format' : 'iframe',\r\n    'height' : 90,\r\n    'width' : 728,\r\n    'params' : {}\r\n  };\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script src=\"https:\/\/www.highperformanceformat.com\/644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content%2Fuploads%2Fsites%2F2%2F2026%2F07%2Fnewspress-collage-19eilgorl-1785453352919.jpg?quality%3D90%26strip%3Dall%261785438993\" \/><\/p>\n<div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2026\/07\/14\/us-news\/ny-rep-mike-lawler-reaps-nearly-5m-as-he-faces-tough-dem-challenger-in-toss-up-house-race\/\">US Rep. Mike Lawler\u2019s re-election race<\/a> vs. Democrat Cait Conley is now a \u201ctoss-up,\u201d according to an independent analyst\u2019s assessment released Thursday.<\/p>\n<p>The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia initially rated the <a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2026\/07\/04\/us-news\/rep-mike-lawler-predicts-midterms-will-be-decided-by-voters-rejecting-far-left-politics-of-envy\/\">race for New York\u2019s battleground 17th Congressional District<\/a> as \u201clean Republican\u201d based on Lawler\u2019s \u201cimpressive victories\u201d in 2022 and 2024 despite the district voting Democratic for president.<\/p>\n<p>But the race for the Hudson Valley seat in one of the few Empire State swing districts has turned the race into the most closely watched in the state as it\u2019s considered key to which party ends up controlling Congress in 2027. <\/p>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption>Hudson Valley Rep. Mike Lawler\u2019s race against Democrat Cait Conley has been rated as a \u201ctoss-up\u201d by the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. <span class=\"credit\">Tomas E. Gaston for NY Post<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\u201cLawler, who holds a district based in Westchester and Rockland counties, drew what appeared to be his strongest potential challenger, [Army] veteran Cait Conley (D), in last month\u2019s primary, and Conley also got the ballot line for the Working Families Party,\u201d the analysis by the center\u2019s \u201cSabato\u2019s Crystal Ball\u201d said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe lack of a divided field may aid Conley in NY-17,\u201d Sabato Crystal Ball\u2019s managing editor Kyle Kondik said.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"single__inline-module aligncenter wp-block-nypost-editor-primary-tag\">\n<\/aside>\n<p>Overall, the analysis released Thursday moved five House races from lean Republican to toss-up, including Lawler\u2019s seat. The other races are in Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.<\/p>\n<p>Partisans on both sides have conducted surveys showing their candidate ahead, but only narrowly.<\/p>\n<p>A poll conducted by GOP-leaning co\/efficient <a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2026\/07\/23\/us-news\/gop-rep-mike-lawler-leads-dem-challenger-cait-conley-in-latest-ny-17-poll\/\">showed Lawler with 50% of the vote to Cait Conley\u2019s 45%<\/a>, just a five-point spread.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption>Cait Conley thanking supporters after winning a five-way primary for the Democratic nomination for New York\u2019s 17th Congressional District during a watch party in Millwood on June 23, 2026. <span class=\"credit\">USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>A survey conducted by the political action committee for House Democrats had <a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2026\/07\/08\/us-news\/dem-poll-forecasts-trouble-for-gop-rep-mike-lawler-in-ny-swing-district\/\">Conley leading Lawler <\/a>51% to 45%.<\/p>\n<p>The Cook Political Report also recently rated the swing district contest a toss-up, while the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxnews.com\/politics\/fox-news-power-rankings-democrats-lead-house-redistricting-keeps-gop-game.amp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Fox News Power Rankings <\/a>moved the race from even to \u201cLean D.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Lawler first took the seat in 2022 when he defeated former Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, then the chairman of the House Democratic Campaign Committee.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"single__inline-module alignright\">\n\t<\/aside>\n<p>He handily won re-election in 2024, beating former lefty Rep. Mondaire Jones by six points despite the district going blue for Kamala Harris in the presidential election.<\/p>\n<p>Conley, an Army veteran, <a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2026\/06\/23\/us-news\/us-army-veteran-wins-dem-primary-to-face-gop-ny-rep-mike-lawler-in-key-toss-up-race\/\">won a five-way primary to win the Democratic nomination<\/a> \u2014 a more mainstream or moderate challenger better suited to make a run in the suburban district that includes all or parts of Westchester, Putnam and Dutchess counties.<\/p>\n<p>Lawler, a former state Assembly member, has <a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2026\/05\/22\/us-news\/trump-touts-gop-backed-tax-cuts-for-new-yorkers-mr-salt-mike-lawler\/\">fought to largely restore the state and local tax deduction <\/a>on federal income tax returns and has been a staunch supporter of Israel.<\/p>\n<p>Conley, a West Point Military Academy graduate, worked as director of counterterrorism on the National Security Council in the Biden administration. She previously served in the US Army and was deployed overseas six times.<\/p>\n<p>Conley campaign spokeswoman Maddy Rosen said Conley would \u201cfight to rein in Washington corruption\u201d and usher in a \u201cbetter, more affordable future for working families. <\/p>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption>Lawler passing out American flags at an Independence Day parade on in Tappan on July 4, 2026 <span class=\"credit\">Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\u201cHudson Valley voters are clearly sick and tired of being thrown under the bus by party-first politician Mike Lawler, who votes with Donald Trump 100% of the time, and are eager for a leader like Cait Conley, whose entire career has been in service to the American people,\u201d Rosen said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAnd unlike Mike, who spends his time cozying up to the corporations and special interests funding his campaign, Cait isn\u2019t taking a single vote for granted.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Lawler\u2019s campaign manager Ciro Riccardi shrugged off the new analysis.<\/p>\n<div class=\"single__inline-module inline-module inline-module--newsletter aligncenter inline-module--nypostbusinessunit aligncenter wp-block-nypost-editor-newsletter\" data-source-unit=\"Inline Newsletter Module Morning Report\">\n<div class=\"inline-module__inner\">\n<div class=\"inline-module__title-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"inline-module__unsubmitted-title-wrapper\">\n<h3 class=\"inline-module__title headline headline--combo-sm-md\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tStart your day with all you need to know\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h3>\n<p class=\"inline-module__cta\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tMorning Report delivers the latest news, videos, photos and more.\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><h3 class=\"inline-module__title headline headline--combo-sm-md\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\tThanks for signing up!\t\t\t\t\t<\/h3>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u201cDemocrats threw everything at Mike Lawler in 2022 and 2024 and lost both times. Nothing has changed,\u201d Riccardi said. \u201cHe leads Cait Conley by 5 in an independent survey, winning independents by 15 points, and has five times her cash in the bank. If [House Democratic Minority Leader] Hakeem Jeffries wants to set another fortune on fire in the Hudson Valley, be our guest. We\u2019ll bring the marshmallows.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Overall, the assessment gives Democrats a slight advantage to win back the House, though not as strongly as they did in President Trump\u2019s first term in 2018, because of <a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2026\/05\/07\/us-news\/redistricting-after-scotus-decision-could-give-gop-edge-in-midterms\/\">GOP-led redrawing of congressional districts in some states.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u201cDemocrats remain favored to flip the House majority in November, but Republicans have a path, too,\u201d Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cRepublicans have 208 seats at least leaning to them, Democrats have 207, and there are now 20 Toss-ups. This gives both parties pathways to a majority, but we\u2019d still expect Democrats to do better among the Toss-ups. Our best guess at this point would be Democrats winning a majority in the low-to-mid 220s.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The Center for Politics at UVA was founded by professor Larry Sabato, its director, and the \u201cCrystal Ball\u201d analysis was started by and is named after him.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<script async=\"async\" data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"https:\/\/pl30214220.effectivecpmnetwork.com\/9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<div id=\"container-9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\"><\/div>\r\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>US Rep. Mike Lawler\u2019s re-election race vs. Democrat Cait Conley is now a \u201ctoss-up,\u201d according to an independent analyst\u2019s assessment released Thursday. The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia initially rated the race for New York\u2019s battleground 17th Congressional District as \u201clean Republican\u201d based on Lawler\u2019s \u201cimpressive victories\u201d in 2022 and 2024 despite&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":22737,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/newspress-collage-19eilgorl-1785453352919.jpg?quality=75&strip=all&1785438993&w=1200","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22736","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-hub"],"brizy_media":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22736","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=22736"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22736\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/22737"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=22736"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=22736"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=22736"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}