{"id":18889,"date":"2026-07-27T14:42:18","date_gmt":"2026-07-27T09:42:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=18889"},"modified":"2026-07-27T14:42:18","modified_gmt":"2026-07-27T09:42:18","slug":"democrats-hit-the-anti-incumbency-trap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=18889","title":{"rendered":"Democrats hit the anti-incumbency trap"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><script>\r\n  atOptions = {\r\n    'key' : '644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6',\r\n    'format' : 'iframe',\r\n    'height' : 90,\r\n    'width' : 728,\r\n    'params' : {}\r\n  };\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script src=\"https:\/\/www.highperformanceformat.com\/644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.axios.com\/iVt3EoB9q4U3mcHa8MTKug_DzeE=\/0x0:1920x1080\/1366x768\/2026\/06\/26\/1782493602713.jpeg\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Democrats are learning a hard lesson Republicans know all too well: The party out of power doesn&#8217;t just ride the anti-incumbency wave \u2014 it can also get swept up in it.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Why it matters: <\/strong>The populist energy surging through the left after President Trump&#8217;s return to the White House is roiling Democratic primaries and fueling establishment fears about the party&#8217;s general election chances.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<ul>\n<li>Just ask Senate Republicans how that went for them in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/story\/2010\/11\/gop-senators-fight-over-failure-044676\" target=\"_blank\">2010<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/news\/the-fix\/wp\/2012\/11\/08\/the-republican-partys-candidate-problem-in-two-charts\/\" target=\"_blank\">2012<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2022\/11\/09\/midterm-election-results-2022-senate-control\" target=\"_blank\">2022<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>&#8220;We saw it in <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/elections-campaigns-senate-elections-missouri-claire-mccaskill-094722b44bdb42bdb4f5387b2babc6be\" target=\"_blank\">Missouri<\/a>, <\/strong>we saw it in <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/blogs\/ballot-box\/senate-races\/266317-donnelly-beats-mourdock-in-indiana-senate-race\/\" target=\"_blank\">Indiana<\/a> more than a decade ago,&#8221; said Rep. Brad Schneider (D-Ill.), the chair of the center-left New Democrat Coalition.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>GOP candidates who were &#8220;off-putting&#8221; and held &#8220;positions that don&#8217;t reflect the majority of the state&#8221; helped Democrats win two seats &#8220;that I don&#8217;t think we would have otherwise,&#8221; he said.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Driving the news: <\/strong>The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/07\/23\/house-democrats-arizona-dccc-shah-delbene-2026\" target=\"_blank\">struck out for a third time<\/a> this past week in its attempt to elevate a candidate in a Democratic House primary.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Former state Rep. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/local\/phoenix\/2026\/07\/22\/1st-congressional-district-primary-election-results-feely-shah-galan-woods\" target=\"_blank\">Amish Shah<\/a><strong> \u2014  <\/strong>whose grassroots, door-to-door campaigning tactics the DCCC does not believe are effective <strong>\u2014 <\/strong>prevailed over the party favorite, ex-TV journalist Marlene Gal\u00e1n-Woods.<\/li>\n<li>The DCCC ran a $500,000 joint ad buy with Gal\u00e1n-Woods and outside Democratic groups spent millions more to support her, but to no avail.<\/li>\n<li>Shah&#8217;s win came after progressives <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/06\/09\/democrats-house-primary-california-villegas-bains\" target=\"_blank\">Randy Villegas<\/a> of California and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/06\/19\/maine-2-primary-result-baldacci-wood-dunlap-dccc\" target=\"_blank\">Matt Dunlap<\/a> of Maine defeated DCCC-backed rivals in primaries last month.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>All three seats <\/strong>are key battlegrounds in Democrats&#8217; fight to retake the House in November.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>While Villegas and Shah are running to flip GOP-held seats, Dunlap is simply trying to hold retiring Rep. Jared Golden&#8217;s (D-Maine) district.<\/li>\n<li>The DCCC added Dunlap rival Joe Baldacci<strong> <\/strong>to its &#8220;Red to Blue&#8221; program but it <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/06\/22\/democrats-maine-dunlap-platner-2026-elections\" target=\"_blank\">has not yet extended the same courtesy to Dunlap<\/a>, which some observers see as a sign of their uncertainty about his chances.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Zoom in: <\/strong>Add that<strong> <\/strong>to Democrats&#8217; big mess in Maine, where populist left-wing darling <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/07\/10\/graham-platner-maine-senate-democrats\" target=\"_blank\">Graham Platner<\/a> dropped out earlier this month amid allegations of sexual assault, which he denied.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Platner, a self-described oyster farmer, had won the Democratic nomination after muscling out Maine Gov. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/04\/30\/janet-mills-maine-senate-platner\" target=\"_blank\">Janet Mills<\/a>, the preferred choice of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).<\/li>\n<li>Instead state party activists have turned to Troy Jackson, a progressive logger and state Senate majority leader who is already facing scrutiny over <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/2026\/07\/20\/democrat-set-replace-platner-maine-led-state-senate-with-temper\/\" target=\"_blank\">alleged angry outbursts<\/a> during his time in the legislature.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>What they&#8217;re saying: <\/strong>&#8220;The reality is that socialism doesn&#8217;t sell with most folks, and neither does their anti-American, anti-cop extremist rhetoric,&#8221; Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) told Axios.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>&#8220;If we let socialists and their extremist message hijack the Democratic Party, then we risk losing the races we should win in November.&#8221;<\/li>\n<li>Said Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio): &#8220;Most Americans &#8230; want to know their leaders are going to work together and keep them safe. They don&#8217;t like extremism, whether it comes from the left or the right.&#8221;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>The other side: <\/strong>Progressive Democrats say their candidates have tapped into voter angst and are well-positioned for November.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>&#8220;Anti establishment and anti status quo candidates give us the best shot in the midterms at a time when Americans view our politics as corrupt and our system as unfair,&#8221; said Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.).<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;Running chatGPT bland centrists is not the answer.&#8221;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Between the lines: <\/strong>While <a href=\"https:\/\/www.natesilver.net\/p\/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls?hide_intro_popup=true\" target=\"_blank\">generic congressional ballot polling<\/a> suggests Democrats are on track for a healthy victory in November, the state-of-play gets far less rosy for them upon closer inspection.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>This cycle&#8217;s mid-decade redistricting war <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/06\/07\/redistricting-gerrymander-house-republicans-democrats\" target=\"_blank\">took a decisive turn in the GOP&#8217;s favor<\/a> after the Supreme Court <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/04\/29\/supreme-court-redistricting-race-gerrymander\" target=\"_blank\">narrowed the Voting Rights Act<\/a>, enabling several Southern states to eliminate Democratic House seats.<\/li>\n<li>The redraws have made it so that House Democrats will need to scrap for every single seat they can get their hands on in order to cobble together a majority even if they win the national popular vote decisively.<\/li>\n<li>Senate Democrats were already staring down a difficult map that would require them to pick up seats in several states President Trump won in 2024 to take the majority.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>What we&#8217;re watching:<\/strong> One of Democrats&#8217; biggest headache this cycle is Michigan, which has primaries on Aug. 4.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Centrist Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) and progressive Abdul El-Sayed are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/local\/detroit\/2026\/07\/14\/stevens-el-sayed-democratic-senate-primary\" target=\"_blank\">pummeling each other<\/a> to be the Democratic candidate in what is sure to be a highly competitive U.S. Senate race.<\/li>\n<li>Establishment Democrats are petrified about an El-Sayed win, but Stevens has faced plenty of headwinds that have put her viability into doubt \u2014 most recently the <a href=\"https:\/\/michiganadvance.com\/2026\/07\/23\/stevens-campaign-parts-ways-with-consultant-after-palantir-work-comes-to-light\/?__cf_chl_rt_tk=OTmjH.f994iTvI6hHQGICH6a_ON0ro0f9KEwO.hj0ic-1784984101-1.0.1.1-kIkOqon_J7rba1Gmbsgeal9aNck_3bJMVSGhdouAkOQ\" target=\"_blank\">ouster of a consultant<\/a> who was moonlighting for Palantir.<\/li>\n<li>Further down the ballot, party leaders are fearful that a pair of moderates running to challenge Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Mich.) will split the vote and clear the way for progressive <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/07\/08\/democrats-jeffries-primaries-speaker-vote-dsa\" target=\"_blank\">Will Lawrence<\/a> to get the nomination.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>The bottom line: <\/strong>Progressive candidates have shown they can win generals in reliably blue areas. November brings the bigger test, and the one causing establishment panic: whether they can succeed in the swing districts that&#8217;ll decide who controls Congress.<\/p>\n<script async=\"async\" data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"https:\/\/pl30214220.effectivecpmnetwork.com\/9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<div id=\"container-9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\"><\/div>\r\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Democrats are learning a hard lesson Republicans know all too well: The party out of power doesn&#8217;t just ride the anti-incumbency wave \u2014 it can also get swept up in it. Why it matters: The populist energy surging through the left after President Trump&#8217;s return to the White House is roiling Democratic primaries and fueling&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":18890,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.axios.com\/iVt3EoB9q4U3mcHa8MTKug_DzeE=\/0x0:1920x1080\/1366x768\/2026\/06\/26\/1782493602713.jpeg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18889","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-political-news"],"brizy_media":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18889","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18889"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18889\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/18890"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18889"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18889"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18889"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}