{"id":18055,"date":"2026-07-26T18:10:30","date_gmt":"2026-07-26T13:10:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=18055"},"modified":"2026-07-26T18:10:30","modified_gmt":"2026-07-26T13:10:30","slug":"100-days-out-from-election-day-our-insider-shares-his-intel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=18055","title":{"rendered":"100 days out from Election Day, our insider shares his intel"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><script>\r\n  atOptions = {\r\n    'key' : '644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6',\r\n    'format' : 'iframe',\r\n    'height' : 90,\r\n    'width' : 728,\r\n    'params' : {}\r\n  };\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script src=\"https:\/\/www.highperformanceformat.com\/644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/graphics.axios.com\/2026-07-24-tossup-districts\/fallbacks\/2026-07-24-tossup-districts-fallback.png\" \/><\/p>\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/urldefense.com\/v3\/__https%3A\/\/www.cookpolitical.com\/ratings__;!!Al82Z4c!2g0rQwHu0QN1-8jpksv8XzE4c05o_N613F78Ma1igtJisCn_JrGakq6QYh_SPsJCczohsklyy89purHK1fWx$\" target=\"_blank\">Data<\/a>: The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.\u00a0Map: Erin Davis\/Axios Visuals<\/div>\n<p><em>The midterm elections are 100 days out. Political reporter Hans Nichols, lead author of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/signup\/hill-leaders\" target=\"_blank\">Hill Leaders<\/a> newsletter, shares his intel on the state of the races:<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>The big picture: <\/strong>The House environment favors the Dems. The terrain favors Republicans. <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The same is broadly true on the Senate side \u2014 except the structural advantages are even greater for Republicans.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr>\n<p><strong>THE HOUSE \u2014 currently 218 Rs, 212 Ds, 1 independent, and 4 vacancies<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Why Democrats are upbeat<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>The polls. <\/strong>The latest Fox News <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxnews.com\/politics\/fox-news-poll-voters-want-major-change-amid-economic-political-discontent\" target=\"_blank\">poll<\/a> has Democrats ahead by 7 points on the generic ballot. Toss in Democratic enthusiasm \u2014 and the fact that Democratic candidates have outperformed 2024 nominee Kamala Harris in the vast majority of special elections \u2014 and you can see why House Republicans are privately so nervous.<\/li>\n<li><strong>The cost of living. <\/strong>Yes, inflation has cooled. But prices have risen during the first two years of President Trump&#8217;s current term, and that&#8217;s especially true on the one billboard everyone sees \u2014 gas prices. The real political gift for Democrats is the direct link between $4-a-gallon gasoline and the unpopular war in Iran that Trump launched.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Why Republicans are cautiously optimistic<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Redistricting. <\/strong>Add up all the mid-cycle redistricting in nine states, squint through a Republican lens, and you&#8217;ll see nine new GOP seats. Put on Democratic glasses and assume that Republicans are renting a few of those seats (especially in mostly Hispanic parts of the Rio Grande Valley) instead of owning them, and it looks closer to six seats.<\/li>\n<li>Either way, Republicans like where they ended up in the redistricting wars of 2026.<\/li>\n<li><strong>There are now <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/06\/18\/house-republicans-democrats-redistricting-trump?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\">23 Democrats running for the House<\/a> in districts Trump in 2024 \u2014 vs. eight Republicans who represent districts Harris won (half are in California).<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>One key battleground<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>For House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), the road to the majority runs through Iowa, which has been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/05\/16\/farmers-agriculture-crops-iran-energy-prices\" target=\"_blank\">hit hard by inflation<\/a> (think fertilizer as much as diesel) and retaliatory agriculture tariffs. In 2018, Democrats picked up two of the three seats the GOP held. On a good night this year, they&#8217;d pick up two of the current four Republican seats. Three for four would be a great night. <\/li>\n<li>But if Republicans hold all four of those seats, it&#8217;s hard to see a Democrat winning the gavel.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>THE SENATE \u2014\u00a0currently 53 Rs, 45 Ds, and 2 independents who caucus with Ds<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Why Republicans are upbeat<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The national environment is grim, but every state is its own ecosystem and the map favors Republicans. Democrats need to flip four seats, including at least two in solidly red states.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Maine. <\/strong>Give Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) credit. He recruited his way out of a bad map. But he didn&#8217;t run the table, and in Maine his worst nightmare came true: Democrats have an untested candidate against a proven winner.<\/li>\n<li>After populist Democrat Graham Platner <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/07\/10\/graham-platner-maine-senate-democrats\" target=\"_blank\">flamed out<\/a> (predictably, Schumer would tell you), Republicans are about to unload on the new substitute nominee, Troy Jackson. Meanwhile, incumbent GOP Sen. Susan Collins is well-funded and ready to make her case that she delivers for Maine as appropriations chair \u2014 shipbuilding, rural hospitals, firehouses.<\/li>\n<li>If Democrats lose Maine, they&#8217;ll need to win in <em>three<\/em> double-digit Trump states. Schumer loves a pair of recruits in two such red states because they&#8217;ve won statewide before: former Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio and former Rep. Mary Peltola in Alaska. <\/li>\n<li>Then Democrats will need some magic in Texas or Iowa \u2014 or both, if Democrats lose Michigan.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>This brings us<\/strong> to the final wildcard of the Democratic primary season: the Aug. 4 showdown between Rep. Haley Stevens and progressive insurgent Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Stevens&#8217; money advantage is staggering \u2014 $50 million to $1 million on the PAC front in the last two months. And yet the race is tied<strong> <\/strong>in the polls.<\/li>\n<li>Many establishment Democrats think El-Sayed \u2014 who has the support of progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) \u2014 is too far left to win a general election. <\/li>\n<li>El-Sayed&#8217;s run for Senate is something of a proving ground for AOC, who&#8217;s weighing a bid for Senate or president in 2028.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<script async=\"async\" data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"https:\/\/pl30214220.effectivecpmnetwork.com\/9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<div id=\"container-9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\"><\/div>\r\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Data: The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.\u00a0Map: Erin Davis\/Axios Visuals The midterm elections are 100 days out. Political reporter Hans Nichols, lead author of the Hill Leaders newsletter, shares his intel on the state of the races: The big picture: The House environment favors the Dems. The terrain favors Republicans. The same is broadly&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":18056,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/graphics.axios.com\/2026-07-24-tossup-districts\/fallbacks\/2026-07-24-tossup-districts-fallback.png","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18055","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-political-news"],"brizy_media":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18055","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18055"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18055\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/18056"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18055"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18055"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18055"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}