{"id":16961,"date":"2026-07-25T17:25:31","date_gmt":"2026-07-25T12:25:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=16961"},"modified":"2026-07-25T17:25:31","modified_gmt":"2026-07-25T12:25:31","slug":"the-rockets-and-feathers-effect-inflation-eases-but-grocery-bills-do-not","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=16961","title":{"rendered":"The &#8216;rockets and feathers&#8217; effect: Inflation eases but grocery bills do not"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><script>\r\n  atOptions = {\r\n    'key' : '644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6',\r\n    'format' : 'iframe',\r\n    'height' : 90,\r\n    'width' : 728,\r\n    'params' : {}\r\n  };\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script src=\"https:\/\/www.highperformanceformat.com\/644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div data-testid=\"prism-article-body\">\n<p class=\"EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao MvWXB TjIXL aGjvy ebVHC \">Economics has a term for what <a class=\"zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE \" data-testid=\"prism-linkbase\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/grocery-shopping-prices-food-affordability-8468c1d6532ca762bbcfa17e3c7707d1\">U.S. grocery prices<\/a> have done in recent years: rockets and feathers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy \">Rockets, because the cost of food eaten at home zoomed up in the aftermath of the pandemic. Feathers, because once prices rise, they\u2019re slow to come down.<\/p>\n<p class=\"EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy \">That\u2019s been frustrating for Americans hit with the sharpest increase in grocery prices in 50 years. While food price inflation peaked in 2022, when prices jumped 11.4%, prices have not reversed course. An acceleration in flation after the U.S. and Israel <a class=\"zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE \" data-testid=\"prism-linkbase\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/hub\/iran\">attacked Iran<\/a> has prolonged the aggravation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy \">\u201cI think the public is coming to grips with, \u2018Well, I\u2019m hearing inflation has slowed, but things aren\u2019t getting any cheaper.\u2019 It has to be deflation for prices to go down, and that\u2019s very rare,\u201d said Matt Hamory, who leads the global grocery practice at the consulting company AlixPartners.<\/p>\n<p class=\"EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy \">Prices for food at home are expected to rise 2.7% across the country this year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported Friday. That&#8217;s higher than the grocery inflation shoppers saw in 2024 and 2025 but close to the historical average of 2.6%. <\/p>\n<p class=\"EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy \">It&#8217;s the compounding effect of the <a class=\"zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE \" data-testid=\"prism-linkbase\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/inflation-consumers-price-gouging-spending-economy-999e81e2f869a0151e2ee6bbb63370af\">post-pandemic price shocks<\/a> that consumers are still feeling, and they&#8217;re reacting to them in ways that could have repercussions for the U.S. economy. <\/p>\n<p class=\"EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy \">A recent study by the consulting firm Bain <!-- -->&amp;<!-- --> Co. and the market research company NielsenIQ said the number of items purchased at U.S. grocery stores declined in the second half of last year and dropped more sharply starting in February of this year. The study said high gas prices, rising GLP-1 usage and cuts in the number of people receiving government food aid are all affecting grocery spending. <\/p>\n<p class=\"EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy \">Consumers are also looking for deals and shopping around to find them. In the second quarter of this year, discounters like Costco, Walmart and <a class=\"zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE \" data-testid=\"prism-linkbase\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/aldi-trump-tariff-inflation-amazon-a84ce4d5938a15c3c6d7349c7e89f01b\">Aldi<\/a> took market share away from traditional grocers like Kroger and Albertsons, according to Numerator, a market research firm. <\/p>\n<p class=\"EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy \">Many U.S. shoppers are also replacing name-brand products with <a class=\"zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE \" data-testid=\"prism-linkbase\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/walmart-remove-artificial-food-dyes-additives-cc64e8343c1a8149758efad2d5b61973\">store brands<\/a> to save money. Total sales of store brands at supermarkets, drugstores and other retailers grew to a record $282.8 billion last year, the Private Label Manufacturers Association said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy \">\u201cNow that this option becomes available, why would I go back? You have the convenience, it\u2019s the same, but my cost is 40% less and it\u2019s a brand that I know and trust,\u201d said Sean Hooper, a senior solution principal at Relex Solutions, a retail and grocery consulting firm.<\/p>\n<p class=\"EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy \">Prices rocketed up for lots of reasons in the wake of the pandemic, from the <a class=\"zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE \" data-testid=\"prism-linkbase\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/russia-ukraine-business-health-europe-united-nations-fe2cc912195478f0dd861e6252c8f3b3\">war in Ukraine<\/a> to a highly contagious <a class=\"zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE \" data-testid=\"prism-linkbase\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/hub\/bird-flu\">bird flu<\/a> that pushed retail <a class=\"zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE \" data-testid=\"prism-linkbase\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/egg-prices-easter-passover-bird-flu-0f4f188f990d6c58bffa5907698548b5\">egg prices<\/a> to <a class=\"zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE \" data-testid=\"prism-linkbase\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/egg-prices-record-bird-flu-a2394bdefc7bd0514d4f003cc5e8a908\">record highs<\/a> last year. And when prices rocket upward \u2014 whether for food, gas or other items \u2014 consumers can count on a slow, downy descent. <\/p>\n<p class=\"EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy \">For one thing, retailers are reluctant to lower prices on inventory they ordered when wholesale prices were high, said Jared Bernstein, a senior policy fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy who served as chair of President Joe Biden\u2019s Council of Economic Advisers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy \">Stores and food companies also want to maximize their profits and were reluctant to give up some of the sales gains they saw after the pandemic, Bernstein said. PepsiCo <a class=\"zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE \" data-testid=\"prism-linkbase\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/pepsi-third-quarter-ae04eaf0ef9e51a04496c6bc5f869ce6\">hiked its prices<\/a> by double-digit percentages for eight straight quarters in 2022 and 2023, for example, citing higher ingredient and packaging costs. After customer demand faltered, the company began <a class=\"zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE \" data-testid=\"prism-linkbase\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/pepsico-earnings-revenue-doritos-0e510d98273ef583c10de58c3c803aec\">lowering prices<\/a> on some snacks last year. <\/p>\n<p class=\"EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy \">Customer behavior also can contribute to prices staying elevated. When prices spike, people shop around for lower ones. But consumers often stop deal hunting when they see prices coming down, giving retailers less incentive to lower prices even further.<\/p>\n<p class=\"EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy \">\u201cThere\u2019s less competitive force on the feather side of the mountain,\u201d Bernstein said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy \">In some cases, grocery inflation is the result of long-term issues with no quick fix. Consider the average price of <a class=\"zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE \" data-testid=\"prism-linkbase\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/coffee-inflation-prices-starbucks-1a809b2d3e650d5e92e2c0f5a5f4f85b\">coffee<\/a>, which has risen 54% in U.S. cities since 2019, according to government data. Climate issues \u2014 including drought in Vietnam, heavy rain in Indonesia and hot, dry weather in Brazil \u2014 <a class=\"zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE \" data-testid=\"prism-linkbase\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/coffee-prices-tariffs-climate-3503a37a8fc95b7dc5a1f29747c81e27\">are blamed for reducing coffee yields<\/a> and driving up global prices.<\/p>\n<p class=\"EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy \">In other cases, there are clearer causes and simpler fixes. For example, U.S. consumers paid 19.5% more for <a class=\"zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE \" data-testid=\"prism-linkbase\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/tomatoes-inflation-prices-groceries-mexico-tariffs-trump-1176fd9d4213f2b568181809937c2170\">fresh tomatoes<\/a> in June compared to a year earlier due to a <a class=\"zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE \" data-testid=\"prism-linkbase\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/mexico-tomatoes-duty-commerce-e1b113bfb9458d2443d5bb999795375c\">17% import tax<\/a> the Trump administration placed on fresh tomatoes from Mexico. Coffee was subject to a tariff for most of 2025 as well, but the duty was <a class=\"zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE \" data-testid=\"prism-linkbase\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/trump-tariffs-coffee-beef-fruit-4fe084c2724ec6d92096efa263fdcf76\">eventually removed<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy \">Hamory said the feather may be starting to fall as big retailers invest in price cuts. In early July, <a class=\"zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE \" data-testid=\"prism-linkbase\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/trump-walmart-inflation-beef-prices-ffc6faf84b68a0a5c5389217b77021ae\">Walmart<\/a> said it was rolling back prices on ground beef, corn, red cherries, ice cream, potato chips and Coca-Cola and Pepsi products. Target also cut prices on some foods in March.<\/p>\n<p class=\"EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC eTIW sUzSN \">\u201cIf the big guys are really investing, saying, \u2018That\u2019s what I need to do to get right with my customer,&#8217; that will force others in the market to act,&#8221; Hamory said. \u201cIt\u2019s just in the process of starting, but that\u2019s a thing we could be seeing.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<script async=\"async\" data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"https:\/\/pl30214220.effectivecpmnetwork.com\/9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<div id=\"container-9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\"><\/div>\r\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Economics has a term for what U.S. grocery prices have done in recent years: rockets and feathers. Rockets, because the cost of food eaten at home zoomed up in the aftermath of the pandemic. Feathers, because once prices rise, they\u2019re slow to come down. That\u2019s been frustrating for Americans hit with the sharpest increase in&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":16962,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/i.abcnewsfe.com\/a\/d4337a38-301e-4fa7-88ac-9075c407653f\/wirestory_0fcd7a7c1e0d1ca36165604bb706b6ad_16x9.jpg?w=1600","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16961","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-hub"],"brizy_media":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16961","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=16961"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16961\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/16962"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=16961"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=16961"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=16961"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}