{"id":10974,"date":"2026-07-19T23:54:53","date_gmt":"2026-07-19T18:54:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=10974"},"modified":"2026-07-19T23:54:53","modified_gmt":"2026-07-19T18:54:53","slug":"ppi-data-lowers-market-odds-of-interest-rate-increases-this-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=10974","title":{"rendered":"PPI data lowers market odds of interest rate increases this year"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><script>\r\n  atOptions = {\r\n    'key' : '644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6',\r\n    'format' : 'iframe',\r\n    'height' : 90,\r\n    'width' : 728,\r\n    'params' : {}\r\n  };\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script src=\"https:\/\/www.highperformanceformat.com\/644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.axios.com\/0ukZAd1XMOB6FQWBAtMhZ9-jieU=\/0x417:4000x2667\/1366x768\/2026\/07\/15\/1784126353811.jpeg\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh is testifying on Capitol Hill for the second day Wednesday, this time before the Senate Banking Committee.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The combination of a few comments he made in Tuesday&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/07\/14\/fed-warsh-congress-rates\" target=\"_blank\">hearing before the House<\/a> and good June inflation data now in hand suggests a rate increase is unlikely at the Fed&#8217;s meeting in two weeks, while its policy stance the remainder of the year is quite uncertain.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Driving the news: <\/strong>The Labor Department on Wednesday morning released a favorable Producer Price Index reading, showing the overall index fell 0.3% in June, while a core index excluding food, energy and trade services was up a modest 0.1%.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>It came on the heels of Tuesday&#8217;s similarly disinflationary <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/07\/14\/cpi-june-inflation-energy\" target=\"_blank\">Consumer Price Index report<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>State of play: <\/strong>The data has diminished the market odds of any interest rate increases this year, and made the market-priced odds of a rate hike at the Fed policy meeting concluding July 29 remote.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>While Warsh has sought to avoid giving away much about the central bank&#8217;s planned actions, a comment he made late in Tuesday&#8217;s hearing supports the idea that no policy adjustment is imminent.<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;Over the coming period, I&#8217;m going to ask our colleagues to have a good family fight about the extent and timing in which we would need to deploy those [policy tools] to deliver on the promise&#8221; of price stability.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Between the lines: <\/strong>That remark came late in a three-hour hearing, when Warsh was surely tired and more prone to diverge from his prepared talking point.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>But it sure doesn&#8217;t sound like a central banker who has made a decision on what he wants to do and is poised to pull the trigger anytime soon.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Of note: <\/strong>While Warsh welcomed the favorable June inflation data, he tamped down any suggestion it offers an all-clear on the price stability front.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Regarding the PPI data, he said Wednesday morning that &#8220;any central bank would be happy to have the data going in the right direction.&#8221;<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;My view is these are all imperfect measures of the state of underlying inflation,&#8221; he said, and that a Fed task force will look at how economic data agencies &#8220;might think about how they could do a better job in an evolving economy.&#8221;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<script async=\"async\" data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"https:\/\/pl30214220.effectivecpmnetwork.com\/9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<div id=\"container-9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\"><\/div>\r\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh is testifying on Capitol Hill for the second day Wednesday, this time before the Senate Banking Committee. The combination of a few comments he made in Tuesday&#8217;s hearing before the House and good June inflation data now in hand suggests a rate increase is unlikely at the Fed&#8217;s meeting in&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10975,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.axios.com\/0ukZAd1XMOB6FQWBAtMhZ9-jieU=\/0x417:4000x2667\/1366x768\/2026\/07\/15\/1784126353811.jpeg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10974","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-political-news"],"brizy_media":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10974","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10974"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10974\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10975"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10974"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10974"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10974"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}