{"id":1012,"date":"2026-07-06T19:06:36","date_gmt":"2026-07-06T14:06:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=1012"},"modified":"2026-07-06T19:06:36","modified_gmt":"2026-07-06T14:06:36","slug":"world-absorbs-historic-iran-war-oil-supply-loss-but-depleted-stocks-bring-risks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/?p=1012","title":{"rendered":"World absorbs historic Iran war oil supply loss, but depleted stocks bring risks"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><script>\r\n  atOptions = {\r\n    'key' : '644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6',\r\n    'format' : 'iframe',\r\n    'height' : 90,\r\n    'width' : 728,\r\n    'params' : {}\r\n  };\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script src=\"https:\/\/www.highperformanceformat.com\/644b717812d811d6a1c1fc5b6ccd6fa6\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div xmlns:default=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" data-testid=\"article-body\">\n<div class=\"bodyItems-wrapper\">\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->By Dmitry Zhdannikov, Robert Harvey and Ahmad Ghaddar<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->LONDON, July 6 (Reuters) &#8211; The world has absorbed with surprising ease the loss of over a billion barrels of oil supply since the Iran war began, but, with long-term peace elusive and buffer reserves now drained, it still faces the looming risk of future price spikes.<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Tehran&#8217;s throttling of the Strait of Hormuz in \u200cresponse to the U.S. and Israeli attacks launched on February 28 fed fears of a catastrophic global energy crunch.<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->The ensuing four-month conflict did, indeed, create the biggest energy disruption in history, according \u200cto the International Energy Agency. At its worst, the headline supply loss was 14 million barrels per day.<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->But worries that Asia and Europe would run out of gasoline, diesel or jet fuel never materialised. And after peaking around $126 per barrel in April \u2014 still some $20 below \u200bthe 2008 record \u2014 benchmark Brent oil prices are now lower than they were when the conflict began.<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->&#8220;This suggests traders viewed the disruption as serious but manageable, reflecting confidence in today&#8217;s more resilient energy and economic systems,&#8221; said John Baffes, senior economist at the World Bank.<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Since the oil crisis of the 1970s, World Bank data shows that oil intensity \u2014 a measure of the role oil plays in economic activity \u2014 has fallen by more than half in most advanced economies and roughly 20% in emerging and developing countries.<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Beyond that structural shift, however, three specific factors have been responsible for forestalling the worst-case scenario during the Gulf crisis.<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Saudi Arabia and the UAE found alternative routes to export. Asia, led \u200cby China, curtailed buying. And countries around the world likely pulled around 1 \u2060billion barrels of oil from their reserves, including via an IEA-led record stocks release.<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->CHINA ADJUSTMENTS EASE GLOBAL PRESSURE<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->When the war broke out China had nearly 1.4 billion barrels of oil stored, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That was more than the 1.2 billion barrels held by all of the 32 members of the IEA \u2060combined, including the United States&#8217; 413 million barrels.<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->China&#8217;s rapid electric vehicle adoption in recent years along with flexibility in oil and petrochemicals output also helped, said Ilia Bouchouev, of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->&#8220;They are managing the market a lot better than (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) used to,&#8221; said Bouchouev, a former head of derivatives trading at Koch Global Partners.<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->The adjustments by China, the world&#8217;s biggest oil importer, helped ease global demand pressure. And the IEA&#8217;s scheme to \u200brelease \u200b400 million barrels of reserves provided further breathing room at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump was repeatedly stating an \u200bend to the war was imminent.<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>   <button class=\"secondary-btn fin-size-large readmore-button    rounded   yf-r7dg9i\" data-ylk=\"elm:readmore;itc:1;sec:content-canvas;slk:Story%20Continues\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;readmore&quot;,&quot;yModuleName&quot;:&quot;content-canvas&quot;,&quot;yLinkText&quot;:&quot;Story Continues&quot;}\" aria-label=\"Story Continues\" title=\"Story Continues\"> <span>Story Continues<\/span> <\/button> <\/p>\n<div class=\"read-more-wrapper\" style=\"display: none\" data-testid=\"read-more\">\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->&#8220;Traders always took the view this can&#8217;t go on \u200cmuch longer,&#8221; said Neil Atkinson, a former IEA official.<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Washington&#8217;s narrative management, that more supply was coming, also made hedge funds reluctant to hold long positions that bet on prices rising, Societe Generale analysts noted.<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->With the signing last month of a preliminary agreement to end the war, there has been a rapid swing back towards business as usual.<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->&#8220;The market seems to have decided that this peace deal is for real,&#8221; Atkinson said.<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->LOST BUFFER RISKS MORE SPIKES<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->In reality, however, little is as it was before the war.<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Even as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq and Bahrain resume production and exports, it will be years in some cases before they fully repair the damage to their energy infrastructure caused by Iranian attacks.<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->While prices may reflect expectations of a rapid return to pre-war supply levels, data on tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz tells a different, more pessimistic story.<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->And with the \u200cclock ticking on the 60-day ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, progress towards a final agreement to end the war has \u200bbeen achingly slow, with key questions \u2014 including the fate of Iran&#8217;s nuclear programme \u2014 still unresolved.<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Meanwhile, there&#8217;s the mammoth task of rebuilding global \u200boil inventories.<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->The global economy weathered the shock by drawing down stocks at a record pace, according \u200bto IEA data, draining the very buffers designed to protect it from supply crises.<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->&#8220;It doesn&#8217;t mean we can&#8217;t operate without one, it just means that forward prices could be \u200cmore prone to spikes,&#8221; Bouchouev said.<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->That kind of volatility is costly.<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Every $5 increase in oil \u200bprices adds roughly $190 billion in annual costs to the \u200bglobal economy, according to Reuters calculations based on oil demand of 104 million barrels per day.<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Replenishing oil stocks, never cheap, has likely been made more expensive by the war.<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Before the conflict, the European Central Bank had estimated 2027-2028 oil prices at $63 to $64 per barrel. That&#8217;s now risen to an average of $65 to $75, according to an ECB report published in June.<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->At current Brent prices, it would likely cost \u200bmore than $70 billion to replace reserves drawn down to mitigate Iran war supply \u200closs.<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->But until that is done, the world is operating without a safety net in an environment still fraught with uncertainty.<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->&#8220;The markets may be underestimating the risk of further oil flow \u200bdisruptions,&#8221; said Saul Kavonic, head of research at MST Marquee. &#8220;Iran is likely to continue to find pretexts to stymie flows through the strait.&#8221;<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->(Reporting by Dmitry Zhdannikov, Robert Harvey and Ahmad Ghaddar, \u200badditional reporting by Sarah McFarlane; Writing by Alex Lawler; Editing by Simon Webb, Jason Neely and Joe Bavier)<!-- HTML_TAG_END -->  <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<script async=\"async\" data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"https:\/\/pl30214220.effectivecpmnetwork.com\/9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\/invoke.js\"><\/script>\r\n<div id=\"container-9ab3d4df8a7e1a6171e16ddbf732cc19\"><\/div>\r\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Dmitry Zhdannikov, Robert Harvey and Ahmad Ghaddar LONDON, July 6 (Reuters) &#8211; The world has absorbed with surprising ease the loss of over a billion barrels of oil supply since the Iran war began, but, with long-term peace elusive and buffer reserves now drained, it still faces the looming risk of future price spikes&#8230;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1013,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/s.yimg.com\/lo\/mysterio\/api\/7FC87E9EF4215F654F33B8BB5CBE680C8EE2B56EB533490E0B82ABF46420DE10\/subgraphmysterio\/resizefill_w1200_h801;quality_80;format_webp\/https:%2F%2Fmedia.zenfs.com%2Fen%2Freuters.com%2Fea78ad0b4d7985f5c3edee1bc50a1fe6","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1012","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-real-trending-viral-news"],"brizy_media":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1012","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1012"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1012\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1013"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1012"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1012"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usnews-14267fa.ingress-comporellon.ewp.live\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1012"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}